Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH Faces Downside Pressure as Vitalik Funds $43 Million in Long-Term Development

• ETH remains below Ichimoku resistance as strong ADX confirms sellers control momentum
• Derivatives and spot flows show disciplined leverage with sellers distributing into rallies
• Vitalik’s ETH allocation supports long-term development despite near-term price weakness

Ethereum continues to trade under visible short-term pressure, with technical indicators, derivatives data, and spot flows pointing to a cautious market stance. On the 4-hour chart, ETH/USD remains structurally weak after losing key Fibonacci support levels. Besides chart signals, recent disclosures from Ethereum’s leadership have added another layer to market focus.

Bearish Structure Defines Short-Term Price Action

Ethereum trades firmly below the Ichimoku cloud, which confirms ongoing bearish momentum. The Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen slope downward and continue to cap upside attempts. Hence, every rebound faces immediate selling pressure rather than sustained follow-through.

Immediate support sits near $2,682, which aligns with a major Fibonacci base. A break below that level could expose the $2,600 to $2,550 demand zone. On the upside, ETH must reclaim $2,852 to stabilize price action. 

Additionally, a move above $2,957 would help neutralize selling pressure. However, the $3,042 to $3,128 zone remains the key reversal area for any broader bullish shift.

Directional indicators also support the bearish bias. The ADX continues rising above 30, signaling trend strength. Moreover, the negative directional index stays above its positive counterpart, confirming seller dominance.

Derivatives and Spot Data Reflect Risk Management

Ethereum’s open interest shows an expansion-and-reset pattern that highlights changing leverage appetite. Open interest rose during strong rallies, which reflected aggressive long positioning. 

However, sharp pullbacks followed periods of volatility, pointing to liquidations rather than steady distribution. Significantly, open interest now stabilizes near $38 billion, suggesting traders remain active but more disciplined.

Spot flow data reinforces this cautious stance. Net outflows dominate recent months, with several spikes exceeding $400 million. Although inflows appear during brief rebounds, they fail to persist. Consequently, larger holders appear to sell into strength rather than accumulate aggressively.

Development Spending Adds Long-Term Context

In these five years, the Ethereum Foundation is entering a period of mild austerity, in order to be able to simultaneously meet two goals:

1. Deliver on an aggressive roadmap that ensures Ethereum's status as a performant and scalable world computer that does not compromise on…

— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) January 30, 2026

Amid market uncertainty, Ethereum’s co-founder Vitalik Buterin disclosed plans to allocate 16,384 ETH, valued near $43 million, toward ecosystem development. He outlined a strategy focused on full-stack openness, security, and verifiability. Additionally, the Ethereum Foundation has entered a phase of tighter spending to sustain long-term scaling efforts.

Technical Outlook for Ethereum (ETH): Key Levels Remain in Focus Heading Into February

Ethereum’s price structure remains under short-term pressure, with key levels clearly defined as volatility builds. 

On the upside, $2,850 and $2,957 stand out as immediate hurdles. A sustained break above this zone could open the door toward $3,040 and the broader $3,120 resistance band, which marks the trend reversal area. However, sellers continue to defend these levels aggressively.

On the downside, $2,682 remains the critical support to watch. A clean breakdown below this level would likely expose ETH to the $2,600–$2,550 demand zone. The broader structure still reflects lower highs and weak momentum, keeping rallies corrective for now.

Will Ethereum Go Up?

Ethereum’s near-term direction hinges on whether buyers can defend $2,682 and reclaim $2,957 with conviction. Compression below resistance suggests volatility expansion ahead. 

If inflows strengthen and leverage stays controlled, ETH could attempt a recovery toward $3,040. Failure to hold $2,682, however, risks deeper downside continuation. For now, Ethereum remains at a pivotal inflection point.