Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH Holds Ascending Channel As Polymarket Eyes $2,600 Move

• Ethereum trades at $2,330, down 0.97%, pulling back from a session high of $2,376 as the daily chart shows a CHoCH structure near $2,329.
• Bitmine now holds 4.596 million ETH worth over $10B, with 3.04 million staked generating $180M in annualized staking revenue.
• Polymarket gives ETH an 80% chance of hitting $2,400 in March and 43% odds of reaching $2,600, with 14 days left in the month.

Ethereum trades at $2,330, down 1% on the day, pulling back after tagging $2,376 yesterday. The daily chart shows a Change of Character formation near current levels, and the 2-hour channel that has guided price higher since late February is still intact. The pullback looks like consolidation after a sharp move rather than a reversal.

Daily Chart: CHoCH At $2,329 After Break Of Structure

The LuxAlgo Smart Money Concepts overlay on the daily chart tells the macro story clearly. ETH put in an Equal Low around $1,800 in early February, followed by a Break of Structure pushing above the prior swing high. The CHoCH at $2,329 is now the level that defines the short-term structure. Price needs to hold above it on a daily close to confirm the shift from bearish to bullish order flow.

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The 20-day EMA at $2,104 and 50-day at $2,218 are both below price and rising. The Strong High on the chart sits near $3,400 to $3,600, the zone that any sustained bull run would eventually target. The descending trendline from the October 2025 highs slopes through the $2,500 area, making that the first major overhead test above current levels.

Key levels:

• CHoCH support: $2,329
• 50-day EMA: $2,218
• Descending trendline resistance: ~$2,500
• 100-day EMA: $2,513
• Strong High zone: $3,400 to $3,600

2-Hour Chart: Channel Intact, RSI Cooling From Overbought

The 2-hour chart shows a clean ascending channel from the late February lows near $1,900, with price having broken above the upper channel boundary at $2,376 before pulling back into the channel midline near $2,300 to $2,330. That kind of throwback after a breakout attempt is normal and does not invalidate the channel unless price drops below the lower boundary near $2,000.

RSI is at 66.93 cooling from 74.60, with the signal line still above 60. MACD at 55.94 is above the signal line at 55.28, histogram at 0.66 and narrowing after the recent spike. Momentum is slowing but has not reversed.

Key 2-hour levels:

• Channel lower boundary: ~$2,000
• Channel midline support: ~$2,200
• Channel upper boundary: ~$2,400
• Next resistance: $2,500 to $2,513

Bitmine Crosses 4.59M ETH With $180M In Annual Staking Revenue

Bitmine now holds 4.596 million ETH, representing 3.81% of the total ETH supply, and has 3.04 million of those tokens staked generating $180 million in annualized staking revenue at a 2.81% yield. The company acquired 5,000 ETH directly from the Ethereum Foundation last week to help fund the Foundation’s operations without forcing open market selling.

Tom Lee, Bitmine’s chairman, noted that since the Iran war began, Ethereum has outperformed the S&P 500 by 2,450 basis points. His thesis is that higher oil prices push investors toward growth assets including crypto, and that ETH trades in tandem with software stocks rather than as an inflation hedge. Bitmine has been slightly increasing its weekly purchase pace, buying 60,999 ETH last week against a prior average of 45,000 to 50,000.

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The MAVAN staking solution, Bitmine’s in-house validator network, is on track to launch in Q1 2026. At full deployment, staking rewards are projected to reach $272 million annually.

Polymarket: 80% Chance Of $2,400, 43% For $2,600 By Month End

Polymarket’s prediction market gives ETH an 80% probability of hitting $2,400 before March ends, with 14 days remaining. The $2,600 level sits at 43% odds, a meaningful jump from where those contracts were trading a week ago. Above $2,800, the probability drops to 17%, and $3,000 sits at just 8%.

The market is essentially pricing a consolidation range of $2,400 to $2,600 as the most likely outcome for March, with lower odds assigned to both a deeper pullback below $1,800 at 8% and a run above $3,000. That probability distribution aligns with the technical picture on both the daily and 2-hour charts.

Outlook: Will Ethereum Go Up?

• Bullish case: ETH holds the CHoCH at $2,329 on a daily close, stays inside the 2-hour ascending channel, and pushes through the descending trendline near $2,500. The 100-day EMA at $2,513 and the $2,600 Polymarket target would be the sequential steps. Continued Bitmine accumulation and the Fed holding rates steady on March 18 would support the move.
• Bearish case: Daily close below the CHoCH at $2,329 breaks the short-term bullish structure and opens the channel midline at $2,200. A hawkish Fed surprise would accelerate selling toward the 50-day EMA at $2,218 and potentially back to the $2,000 channel lower boundary.

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