Gold’s Breakout Is the ‘Forerunner’ to DXY Collapse, Bitcoin Rally – Analyst

• A market analyst has outlined a macro “domino effect,” linking Gold’s breakout to a coming Bitcoin (BTC) rally.
• The thesis: The Trump Administration needs a weaker U.S. Dollar (DXY) to boost exports, making Gold’s breakout the “forerunner” of this policy shift.
• The DXY is expected to fall from new policies (QT ending, OBBBA). As Bitcoin moves inversely to the DXY, this drop is the prerequisite for its next rally.

A market analyst has identified a clear macro-economic sequence for the next Bitcoin (BTC) rally. In a recent analysis, the analyst identified Gold as the “forerunner” to this move. Gold’s current breakout is seen as the first signal of an impending U.S. Dollar (DXY) decline, a policy shift driven by the Trump Administration.

What Do Gold and DXY Tell Us About BTC?

According to the analyst, the DXY needs to establish its next leg lower before Bitcoin’s expected rally. 

However, fulfilling that condition would depend on how Gold responds to the prevailing market conditions, considering its role as a safe-haven hedge during chaotic or uncertain periods.

Related: Peter Schiff Shrugs At Gold’s Drop But Warns Bitcoin Can’t Handle The Same

The Thesis: A Weaker Dollar Is Now U.S. Policy

The analyst noted that Gold’s breakout signals a potential, deliberate weakening of the US dollar. This aligns with statements from top government officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and President Donald Trump.

This policy is driven by economic realities. A weaker dollar is needed to boost U.S. exports and manufacturing, which are crucial aspects of the Trump administration’s agenda. A softer dollar also eases global financial conditions as the business cycle continues its post-pandemic rebuild.

Related: Bitcoin Sinks 15% as S&P 500 Gains 7%, Breaking 4-Year Correlation

The Market Sequence: Gold Leads, DXY Follows, Bitcoin Reacts

This policy need creates a predictable market sequence. Gold acts as the “forerunner,” typically rallying before US policymakers actively step in to stabilize the situation. The DXY, in turn, “lags” Gold’s trend.

The analyst states that the DXY must establish its “next leg lower” before Bitcoin’s expected rally can begin. Bitcoin, he notes, typically moves in the opposite direction of the DXY

Here’s Why the DXY is Bound to Collapse

Focusing on the DXY behavior, the analyst noted that emerging economic policies, including QT ending, rate cuts, increased debt issuance from the US Treasury, TGA being spent, and new fiscal measures like tax cuts and tariff rebates from the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBBA), will lead to a drop in DXY.

As earlier indicated, Bitcoin typically reacts in the opposite direction to DXY, suggesting an upcoming rally for the digital currency. Additionally, Bitcoin’s behavior is significantly dependent on investors’ appetite, which is reflected in the divergence often observed between the cryptocurrency and Gold.