- Gold’s rally has often led BTC by ~80 days in prior cycles, Colin says.
- The BTC–Global M2 correlation weakened over the last three months.
- BTC remains highly sensitive to liquidity, so policy cues matter for timing.
Bitcoin’s next leg may take its cue from gold’s run, according to analyst Colin Talks Crypto, who tracked the historical pattern where gold leads Bitcoin by about 80 days. His latest overlay compares BTC, gold, and Global M2 and shows gold sprinting while Bitcoin lags.
The read is simple in that if the lead-lag holds, the handoff window for BTC sits in late December to January, but the timing depends on when gold’s momentum cools and how global liquidity signals line up.
Why the gold lead matters now
Gold jumped to fresh records into October and pulled sentiment with it. In Colin’s cycle work, an advancing gold line often precedes a delayed BTC push, which traders treat as a timing tell rather than a price target.
Related: Gold’s 2025 Rally (12 ATHs) Draws Comparisons to Bitcoin Price Action
Bitcoin and Global Liquidity
The comparison chart places Global M2 as a central indicator of liquidity’s role in Bitcoin’s price behavior. Historically, when M2 expands, liquidity flows into risk assets, often lifting Bitcoin’s value.
Colin observed that M2’s trends tend to lead Bitcoin’s price action by about 80 days, highlighting Bitcoin’s sensitivity to global monetary expansion.
From January 2024, after the launch of Bitcoin Spot ETFs, Bitcoin and M2 moved together, showing a tighter link between institutional liquidity and crypto markets. Yet, over the past three months, that relationship has weakened, becoming the weakest since ETF approval, indicating a possible decoupling phase.
What weakening correlation signals near peaks
Colin’s backtests show decoupling near prior cycle peaks. The pattern does not predict exact tops, but it warns that BTC can lag gold and M2 before making a late-cycle push. That is why the next few months matter.
A firm policy-driven liquidity cue could tighten the M2 link again and pull forward the BTC move. If liquidity stays patchy while gold cools, the follow-through slides into early 2026.
What could shift BTC’s path next
- Liquidity impulse: Clear easing or balance-sheet growth from major central banks would tighten the BTC–M2 link and improve timing confidence.
- Gold momentum fade: A rollover in gold starts the handoff clock for BTC under the 80-day framework.
- Risk-off shock: A policy surprise or funding stress could delay the handoff and keep BTC range-bound.
Related: Raoul Pal Predicts Bitcoin Peak in 2026 Despite Debt Shift
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