- Gold, silver, and Bitcoin surge as investors seek protection from dollar weakness.
- Markets see 90% chance of September Fed rate cut amid cooling inflation signals.
- U.S.-China trade talks and tech export deals may sway Fed policy direction ahead.
Gold, silver, and Bitcoin are all posting massive year-to-date gains in what looks like a clear shift away from paper currency and toward hard assets. This trend is heating up as the U.S. dollar is under pressure ahead of a critical inflation data report later today that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.
Commodities Outshine as Currency Loses Ground
According to CryptoQuant recent market data, gold is up 32.47% this year, with silver close behind at 31.77%. Bitcoin, despite its recent volatility, has climbed 23.34%.
In sharp contrast, the U.S. dollar has lost 9.53% of its value over the same period.
On Monday, gold traded at $3,346.71 per ounce, edging up by $2.60. Prices fluctuated between $3,344 and $3,356 during early trading. Silver stood at $37.75 per ounce, adding $0.06 and showing mild intraday volatility. Bitcoin, priced at $118,500, slipped 2.34% over 24 hours but retained a weekly gain of 3.70%.
But which is better? They’re both winning, but the Gold vs. Bitcoin debate is hotter than ever. Here’s Peter Schiff’s recent take.
All Eyes on the Federal Reserve
The U.S. dollar index recently ticked higher to 98.58, reflecting a modest 0.07% increase. However, traders are watching closely for July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. A 0.3% monthly rise in core CPI could give the Fed room to cut rates, especially with recent signs of a weakening labor market.
According to Reuters data, markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut next month. Projections suggest two quarter-point cuts by year-end, with a possible third if conditions warrant.
The Fed’s decision-making could also be influenced by ongoing trade policies, including recent developments in U.S.-China negotiations and semiconductor export agreements.
Inflation, Tariffs, and Market Sentiment
Cooling inflation would strengthen expectations for a September rate cut. However, any signs of tariff-driven price increases could delay that move.
President Trump recently extended a pause on higher tariffs for Chinese imports, aiming to create space for trade discussions. Meanwhile, technology companies like Nvidia and AMD have agreed to allocate part of their Chinese sales revenue to the U.S. government in exchange for export licenses.
The TradFi view. It’s not just crypto personalities debating this. Here’s what a top JPMorgan analyst predicted for the Gold-to-Bitcoin ‘baton exchange.’
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