- XRP price could skyrocket if approved spot ETFs attract even half the capital inflows of Bitcoin ETFs by 2025.
- The U.S. SEC review of XRP spot ETFs is currently delayed.
- Analysts predict XRP ETFs could attract $5–$10 billion in inflows during their first month.
If XRP spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) secure approval and attract even half of the capital inflows that Bitcoin ETFs receive by 2025, its price could surge dramatically.
Notably, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has effectively stalled the U.S. SEC review of several XRP spot ETF applications. Firms such as Grayscale and Bitwise all faced decision deadlines between October 18 and October 20, yet no rulings have been issued.
However, Industry observers remain optimistic. According to Oliver Michel, CEO of German investment firm Tokentus, the SEC is likely to grant approvals once normal operations resume.
Analysts See Major Inflow Potential
Should the SEC eventually approve multiple XRP ETF filings, market analysts expect substantial investment activity.
Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, famously predicted that XRP ETFs could attract between $5 billion and $10 billion in inflows within their first month of trading. Even the conservative end of this forecast suggests impressive momentum.
Related: XRP ETF to Outperform Ethereum ETFs? Canary Capital CEO Says “Absolutely”
For comparison, Ethereum ETFs initially struggled, reporting negative $480 million in net flows over their first four months. However, they later rebounded strongly, reaching $14.59 billion in total net inflows at present.
This pattern hints that XRP ETFs could follow a similar trajectory, potentially driving XRP prices upward over time.
Estimating XRP Price Potential If It Captures 50% of Bitcoin ETF Inflows
According to data from Sosovalue, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $61.84 billion in cumulative inflows since their debut, with $26.6 billion coming in 2025 alone.
If XRP ETFs were to capture half of those yearly inflows over a two-year period, they would bring in roughly $10.685 billion. This projection appears reasonable given that Ethereum ETFs amassed $14.57 billion within about 15 months of trading.
Translating Inflows Into Market Cap Growth
It’s important to note that fund inflows don’t translate directly into market value; there’s typically a magnifying “inflow-to-valuation” effect. For example, in May, analyst Dom calculated that just $61 million in XRP inflows resulted in a $16.6 billion jump in its market capitalization—a 272x multiplier.
To stay conservative, let’s assume only one-third of that effect, or a 90x multiplier. At this rate, $10.685 billion in inflows could increase XRP’s market capitalization by approximately $961.65 billion.
Currently, XRP’s market cap sits near $144 billion, with the token trading at about $2.40. Adding the projected increase brings its total valuation to around $1.1 trillion. Given its circulating supply of 60 billion tokens, this would equate to a price of roughly $18.42 per XRP. That represents an 844% surge from current levels.
Essentially, if XRP ETFs receive approval and manage to capture even a modest share of the capital flowing into Bitcoin ETFs, the resulting demand could push XRP prices to unprecedented highs.
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