- Ceasefire strain deepens as Lebanon strikes persist, raising global market uncertainty.
- Strait of Hormuz disruption risk grows, increasing pressure on global oil prices.
- Bitcoin (BTC) swings after tensions rise, with traders split on the April price direction.
Mounting strain on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has unsettled global markets. Iran issued a withdrawal warning while strikes continued in Lebanon. These events raised concern over oil flows and triggered volatility in Bitcoin trading.
Tehran warned it could exit the ceasefire if Israeli attacks persist in Lebanon. Iranian media Tasnim cited an informed source who signaled a possible forceful response. The statement followed shortly after the agreement.
Ceasefire Disputes Deepen as Oil Supply Risks Rise
In a report, Reuters described one of the fiercest episodes in the battle in Lebanon. According to Israeli troops, there were about 100 attacks from various places, including Beirut.
Trump explained that the pact is not applicable in Lebanon due to Hezbollah. Similarly, Israel’s leader, Netanyahu, said Lebanon was not part of the ceasefire.
Nevertheless, the Pakistani Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, provided another take on the issue. He explained that the ceasefire applies “everywhere, including Lebanon and elsewhere.”
Tension has also spilled over into energy markets. Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a halt after Tehran accused Israel of breaking the ceasefire, state-owned Iranian news agency Fars reported.
That sort of disruption at a key chokepoint could tighten supply conditions. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz was a prerequisite for the ceasefire, so any delay there represents a risk factor for moving prices higher.
Bitcoin Volatility Amid Ceasefire Uncertainty
Meanwhile, Israeli officials are re-evaluating the situation. The Israeli security cabinet is set to convene to review the terms of a potential ceasefire, with some expressing concern based on the absence of prior consultation, PANews reported.
However, reported Iranian missile and drone activity targeting Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia, also puts further pressure on, per Reuters.
Despite the tensions, diplomacy continues. Donald Trump said direct talks with Iran should come soon. Shehbaz Sharif announces U.S. and Iranian delegations to meet in Islamabad for the talks on April 10, 2026.
Bitcoin, for its part, reacted swiftly to deepening uncertainty. The price fell from over $72,000 to under $71,000. As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $71,740 according to TradingView data and grew 4.50% in the last 24 hours.
Market sentiment remains divided. 66% of traders on Polymarket predict Bitcoin to hit $75,000 in April 2026, while 41% expect a drop back toward $65,000.
Source: Polymarket
Overall, uncertainty continues to shape market direction. Any further violations may push oil prices higher, while Bitcoin is likely to remain sensitive to shifts in the ceasefire situation.
Related: Polymarket Traders Net $663K on US-Iran Ceasefire in Suspected Insider Trade
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