Is SIREN a Textbook Supply Squeeze? 340% Rally Raises Questions

• A single wallet cluster controls up to 88% of SIREN’s circulating supply.
• Leveraged trading amplified both the rally and the sharp decline.
• On-chain data shows limited new user participation during the surge.

SIREN’s sharp rally and sudden crash have raised concerns about a possible supply squeeze. The token surged more than 340% in 30 days before losing over 60% in the past 24 hours. On-chain data points to concentrated ownership and leveraged trading as key drivers.

SIREN Rally Driven by Leverage and Narrative

SIREN became one of the most active tokens on BNB Chain after shifting toward an AI-driven narrative. The project, which promotes an “AI agent” for decentralized finance, saw its price climb from under $0.63 on March 16 to highs above $2.81, a 1300% surge in the period. 

This move pushed its market capitalization towards $3 billion at peak levels. Trading volume surged into nine-figure territory, supported by listings on major exchanges. Platforms such as Bybit introduced perpetual futures tied to SIREN, offering leverage of up to 25x.

At the same time, reported token burns of about 26% reduced available supply. Backing from firms such as DWF Labs and inclusion in BNB Chain programs added visibility. These factors combined to create strong upward pressure in a relatively small-cap market.

Is SIREN a Textbook Supply Squeeze?

Market data and on-chain metrics indicate that SIREN displayed several characteristics commonly associated with a supply squeeze. A large portion of the token’s supply remained concentrated in a small number of wallets, limiting the amount available for open trading.

Blockchain analytics from Arkham Intelligence show that one wallet cluster holds about 644 million SIREN tokens. This represents roughly 88% of the total circulating supply of 728.21 million tokens. Bubblemaps also reported that a single entity may control around half of the supply.

This level of concentration reduces the number of tokens actively available for trading. In such conditions, even moderate buying activity can push prices higher. Analysts often describe this setup as a supply squeeze, where limited float meets rising demand.

On-Chain Activity Points to Controlled Supply

Analyst EmberCN linked the dominant wallet cluster to coordinated activity, suggesting the group may have influenced both spot and derivatives markets. He noted that holding a large portion of supply allowed the entity to benefit from price movements in leveraged markets.

Another analyst, Mlmabc, warned that supply was “heavily cornered,” with wallet clusters sitting on about $950 million in unrealized profit during the rally.

This level of concentration can allow large holders to influence price direction. When supply is tightly held, price movements can become more sensitive to buying and selling decisions by a few participants.

Profit-Taking and Liquidations Trigger Sharp Decline

The market shifted when large holders began selling. On-chain data shows selling activity increased near $2.30 to $2.40, followed by additional selling between $1.10 and $1.20. As prices fell, leveraged positions began to unwind. Liquidations reached about $2.7 million over 24 hours, including $1.4 million in long liquidations.

This triggered a cascade effect. Within one hour, SIREN dropped about 61%. Over 24 hours, losses reached approximately 64%. The token traded near $1.01 after the decline.

Market capitalization fell to about $741.52 million, while 24-hour trading volume dropped 55.8% to $99.62 million. Open interest declined 64.39% to $52.31 million, and derivatives volume fell 60.59% to $1.92 billion.

Related: SIREN Soars Toward $3B as One Entity Controls Up to 88% Supply