- Japan’s 10-year bond yield hit 1.728%, the highest since 2008, sparking fears of tighter global liquidity affecting crypto markets.
- Rising Japanese yields are reversing decades of cheap yen flows, pulling over $1 trillion from U.S. Treasuries.
- Despite short-term volatility, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and decentralization may make it an attractive hedge.
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has jumped to 1.728%, the highest since 2008. This is raising worries that global liquidity could tighten and affect crypto markets.
This “bond shock” is compounded by a contracting Japanese economy, which shrank 0.4% in Q3, hurt by tariffs, weak exports, and higher domestic spending.
Analysts are warning this may be more than a simple market move; it could signal the end of a 30-year era where Japan’s ultra-low interest rates provided indirect, yet a massive subsidy to global risk assets, including crypto.
Japan Ends the Era of “Free Money”
Data analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera described the development as the moment “Japan killed the global money printer.”
For decades, Japan kept interest rates near zero. This let investors borrow cheap yen and invest in higher-yield assets around the world — a strategy called the yen carry trade. It pumped over $3.4 trillion into U.S. Treasuries, European bonds, emerging-market debt, tech stocks, and even crypto, helping keep borrowing costs low and pushing global asset prices up.
Now that Japanese yields are rising and the government is launching a new $110 billion stimulus package, that flow of money is starting to reverse.
Major Japanese pension funds, once huge buyers of U.S. Treasuries, are reportedly moving money back into Japan because overseas returns look worse once currency hedging is factored in.
Perera believes this could pull as much as $1.1 trillion out of U.S. Treasuries, tightening global liquidity. Historically, when U.S. yields rise and liquidity shrinks, Bitcoin and altcoins often come under pressure.
Related: Japan to Slash Crypto Tax From 55% to 20% by 2026: Here’s Why That’s Huge for Metaplanet
The $3.4T Liquidity Drain: Yen Carry Trade Collapse Is Coming for Crypto
Perera noted that more than $1.2 trillion in global investments were funded with cheap yen. These include hedge fund bets on Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as positions in emerging-market stocks and big tech.
As Japanese yields rise, many of these trades may have to be closed, which could create volatility across traditional markets and crypto.
Even with these short-term risks, some analysts still see Bitcoin as a potential macro hedge. Japan’s debt has climbed to 263% of GDP, and higher yields make that debt more expensive to manage.
In this environment, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and decentralization may look increasingly attractive as protection against systemic risk, currency weakening, and global debt stress.
All Eyes on Japan’s December Meeting
Perera warns that the situation could escalate based on the Bank of Japan’s next move. On December 18, the BoJ is expected to decide whether to hike rates again.
Any decision to tighten further could trigger broader market stress, causing yields to spike and risk assets, including crypto, to experience sharp repricing. Ultimately, while the short-term risks are significant, the longer-term outlook could favor assets like Bitcoin.
Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Heavy Outflows Leave BTC Exposed as Price Sits Near $95,000
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