- The crypto market has recorded bearish sentiment in the past few weeks amid low whale‘ demand.
- The wider crypto market will experience higher volatility this week amid several high-impact news.
- The onset of the fourth quarter this week is expected to increase the crypto bullish outlook based on historical data.
The crypto market enters the final week of September under pressure, with bearish sentiment and low whale demand weighing on prices. Traders expect higher volatility with a series of macro events and crypto-specific catalysts converge, setting the stage for Q4, a quarter that has historically favored bulls, but often begins with sharp corrections.
According to CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index, market sentiment has slipped back into fear, echoing conditions seen before February’s capitulation.
This week’s lineup of Fed speeches, FTX distributions, and U.S. economic data could provide the spark that shifts momentum.
Related: FTX $1.6 Billion Creditor Payout Sept. 30 Turns Into Crypto’s Next Liquidity Test
Top Events that Will Impact the Crypto Market This Week
Fed Officials Line Up to Speak
Five separate Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak this week, each offering potential clues about the central bank’s next move on rates. Traders will parse every remark for signs of whether an October cut remains on the table.
- Monday: Alberto Musalem (Washington University, St. Louis) and John Williams (Rochester Institute of Technology, New York).
- Tuesday: Raphael Bostic (Atlanta economy outlook), Susan Collins (Council on Foreign Relations, New York), Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed Agriculture Conference).
- Wednesday: Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed event).
- Thursday: Logan again (University of Texas energy policy conference).
- Friday: John Williams (Amsterdam symposium) and Philip Jefferson (Drexel Economic Forum, Philadelphia).
For Bitcoin and altcoins, even small policy hints on rate cuts, inflation outlook, or liquidity can move markets quickly.
Related: Traders Target $120K as Bitcoin Awaits Key U.S. PCE Inflation Report
FTX’s $1.6 Billion Distribution
On Tuesday, September 30, the FTX Recovery Trust will finalize its third distribution. As previously reported, the FTX Recovery Trust will distribute $1.6 billion to eligible creditors.
Last week, BitGo, one of the selected crypto exchanges to facilitate the FTX distribution process, informed its approved creditors that funds had been deposited in their accounts but would be unlocked on September 30.
Past distributions triggered sell-offs: after the February 18 tranche, BTC dropped 15% in the following weeks; after the May 30 payout, it slid more than 10.
With Bitcoin already leaning bearish, traders fear this week’s distribution could add mid-term downside pressure as creditors sell unlocked assets into a weak market.
U.S. Economic Data that Will Impact the Next Fed’s Rate Decision
The week’s macro data will be critical for the Fed’s October decision. Prediction market Kalshi currently prices an 81% chance of a 25 bps cut, but the odds may shift as new reports come in
- Wednesday: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Institute for Supply Management).
- Thursday: Weekly initial jobless claims (Department of Labor).
- Friday: Unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls (Bureau of Labor Statistics).
Each release will help shape expectations for U.S. growth and inflation, directly feeding into crypto traders’ outlook for liquidity and risk appetite.
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