- XRP recently entered price discovery, signaling the onset of the last phase of the macro bull rally
- Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto anticipates XRP to hit its next cycle low beginning in 2026
- The imminent closure of the Ripple vs SEC case has helped improve the XRP fundamentals
As the XRP price enters a euphoric phase of the 2025 bull market, crypto analyst Egrag Crypto has issued a bold, long-term prediction; not for the next high, but for the next major cycle low.
Using a historical chart study of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, the analyst has laid out a theory for when the next XRP bear market bottom could arrive.
When will the next XRP bear market bottom arrive?
According to Egrag Crypto’s analysis, the next XRP cycle low should kickstart around January 2026 and extend through February 2027.
Related: A $5 Price for XRP Is ‘Realistic,’ and Here Are the Three Big Reasons Why
The analyst came to this conclusion by comparing the market structure and MACD patterns of the last two major crypto bull and bear cycles.
Is the four-year crypto cycle still valid for XRP?
This prediction comes as the traditional four-year crypto cycle is being contested. The mainstream adoption of crypto by institutional investors, especially through Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), has reduced the dependency of altcoins on Bitcoin for capital rotation.
Due to the high adoption of XRP and the wider crypto market by institutional investors, Egrag Crypto has issued two potential cycle lows for XRP, all based on previous market structure.
Major Factors that Will Induce the Next Bear Market for XRP
The XRP price action in the past years has remained correlated with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) due to capital rotation. However, the mainstream adoption of crypto assets by institutional investors, especially through Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), has reduced the altcoins’ dependency on Bitcoin for cash rotation during the bull market.
As a result, some analysts have championed a new crypto era largely free from the four-year cycle. In this regard, the XRP market will continue to depend on the success rate of Ripple Labs’ business model.
Related: XRP Price Prediction for July 31
Furthermore, Ripple Labs is the largest holder of XRP through the escrow account, which releases 1 billion coins per month to support the company’s operations. A failure in Ripple’s business model could be catastrophic for the XRP market amid heightened competition in the cross-border crypto payments.
Bigger Picture
The XRP growth in the past months is majorly influenced by the imminent closure of the ongoing lawsuit filed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against Ripple. Already, Ripple withdrew its cross-appeal case, which was filed in response to the SEC’s appeal of a July 2023 ruling by the U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres.
Additionally, the XRP market has significantly benefited from the clear crypto regulatory frameworks in the United States. For instance, the passage of the GENIUS Act into law will help Ripple USD (RLUSD) gain more market share and in turn improve the XRP ecosystem including in expediting on-chain burns.
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