- Binance whale inflows have dropped by more than $3B, suggesting reduced selling pressure.
- A potential recovery can take months, according to analyst Kripto Mevsimi.
- Immediate support levels for BTC stand at $83,195 (0.618 Fib) and $85,704 (0.786 Fib).
Bitcoin is finding stability around the $84,500 mark after a lengthy corrective phase. With whale behavior stabilizing, a major institutional long bet hitting the market, and key technical indicators shifting to bullish, sentiment is slowly turning positive for investors.
Notably, as per analyst Darkfost, the recent on-chain data from Binance reveals that large holders or whales are not exhibiting panic-driven behavior.
On-Chain View: Whale Behavior Signals Less Selling Pressure
Darkfost noted that the 365-day moving average of the Exchange Whale Ratio is on a consistent upward trend.
This implies whales exert more influence on Binance fund flows over longer periods, hinting at underlying conviction.
However, the 30-day average of the same metric has been decreasing, returning to levels last seen in late 2024. This short-term decline in activity likely indicates that these big players are pulling back on selling pressure.
Backing this, total whale inflows into Binance have dropped by more than $3 billion, a move that echoes behavior seen during previous corrections.
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Overall, this trend indicates that whales are not currently rushing for the exits. Instead, they’re likely choosing to sit tight and avoid major sell-offs.
Caution Advised: History Shows Recoveries Can Take Time
Despite the improved technical and on-chain picture, some analysts urge patience. As per analyst Kripto Mevsimi, historical patterns, particularly from the 2021 cycle, show that even when metrics like demand or price start to bounce, a true structural recovery can take months.
During previous cycles, demand metrics stayed negative or near zero for extended periods before any sustainable bullish trend took hold.
While Bitcoin’s recent 30-day apparent demand shows a bounce, it might reflect temporary relief, not confirmed accumulation or a definitive bottom. Sustained buying volume and time are still needed to confirm a full market turn.
Technical Setup Offers Constructive Short-Term Picture
Bitcoin’s daily chart currently aligns with cautious optimism. The Fibonacci retracement plotted from the local bottom of $74,434 to the top at $88,772 shows that Bitcoin has reclaimed key levels.
BTC is currently trading above the 0.618 level ($83,195) and testing the 0.786 level ($85,704). The prior high of $88,772 remains the immediate major resistance.
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Should price break through $88,772, the next major target is the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $97,633, followed by possible moves to $111,971, $126,309, and even $135,170 in a sustained uptrend.
Momentum indicators like the MACD also support a bullish outlook. The MACD line has recently crossed above the signal line, and histogram bars are climbing into positive territory. This is a classic signal that buyers are regaining control.
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