Polymarket Bets Give Bitcoin 30% Odds for $100,000 in October, But Only 1% for $150,000

• Other sources show the probability of Bitcoin ending October below $100,000 has climbed to 34% (in some markets, it’s even up to 52%)
• The Financial Stability Board (a major global financial watchdog) warned of “significant gaps” in global crypto rules.
• The amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges has fallen to its lowest point in six years.

On Polymarket’s “What price will Bitcoin hit in October?” page, traders are placing about a 30% chance that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 this month. Even more striking is that approximately just 1% of users believe Bitcoin will break $150,000 in October.

At the same time, other sources show that the probability of Bitcoin ending October below $100,000 has climbed to 34% (in some markets, it’s even up to 52%).

Related: Bitget Hits $200M in US Stock Futures Trading Volume, Fueling Market Growth

Currently, according to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is trading at roughly $110,959, which is a 3% increase in the last 24 hours. Compared to seven days ago, the price dropped by around 3.5%.

Polymarket is a prediction-market platform where participants bet on future outcomes, such as asset prices, and it sometimes serves as a real-time snapshot of retail and trader sentiment.

These odds indicate that while there is still bullish hope for Bitcoin, confidence is somewhat muted, especially considering the minimal chances given to BTC reaching $150,000.

Uptober is not as good as expected, so far

Bitcoin opened October with notable gains, only to experience a notable downturn triggered by macroeconomic developments and a historic wave of liquidations. More precisely, during this period, leveraged crypto positions lost over $19 billion in value.

Related: Bitcoin Nears Oversold Territory as Gold Hits Record Highs Amid $1.5M BTC Parity Bet

The famous “Uptober” season traditionally sees crypto strength in October, but this year, that tailwind appears challenged.

Still, during the past several days, the crypto industry saw signs of tentative recovery, where BTC climbed to roughly $110,715 after a 3.3 % rise, while Ethereum traded near $4,055 thanks to emerging buying interest.

However, the Financial Stability Board (a major global financial watchdog) warned of “significant gaps” in global crypto rules, which means continued uncertainty for the rest of October.

Also, the amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges has fallen to its lowest point in six years. Since the start of October, withdrawals have totaled more than 45,000 BTC, representing a value of approximately $4.8 billion.

As such, given the current crypto environment, the Polymarket bets probably make sense. With a shaky economy, big investors being careful, and recent large‐scale liquidations, it’s no surprise that people are less confident about huge price increases.