- Polymarket’s top trader bets $15K on 50 bps Fed cut, risking against market consensus
- CME FedWatch shows 91% probability of only 25 bps cut, but weak jobs data fuels debate
- A 50 bps cut could spark rallies in Bitcoin and stocks as lower rates support risk assets
A top trader on Polymarket, the decentralized prediction market, is betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points at next week’s meeting. The trader, going by JustWakingUp on X, wagered $15,000 on the outcome, a position that could return $226,000 if correct.
The position is already up about 3%, but it runs against broader market consensus.
Related: Trump Pressures Fed Chair Powell Over Costly Renovation and Interest Rates
50 bps vs 25 bps; which would take the day?
JustWakingUp is Polymarket’s most prolific trader, according to X handle Polymarket Whales, which posted evidence of the latest bet. The handle noted that the trader boasts nearly $400 million in total trading volume, with a profit margin that exceeds $2 million.
For context, a 50 bps reduction by the Fed would bring the interest rate to 3.75%. In the meantime, the trader’s position was already showing a 3% gain at the time of filing this report. However, his projection differs from broader market expectations, with most people expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 bps. Data from the CME’s FedWatch Tool reflects a 91% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps.
Jobs Report Tilts Odds Toward Larger Cut
The case for a bigger move gained momentum after last Friday’s disappointing U.S. jobs report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down employment growth by 911,000 jobs for the 12 months ending March 2025, the largest annual downward revision on record.
Importantly, the weakness stemmed from a surge in job seekers rather than mass layoffs, but it still pointed to slack in the labor market. That trend could encourage policymakers to act more aggressively.
Data to Watch Before the Decision
Traders are now eyeing this week’s Producer Price Index (PPI) release on Wednesday and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Thursday. If both reports confirm cooling inflation alongside weaker labor data, the Fed may face more pressure to opt for a 50 bps cut.
Such a move would likely be interpreted as bullish for Bitcoin and U.S. equities, as lower rates reduce borrowing costs and encourage risk-on sentiment.
Related: ECB Cuts Key Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points for Sixth Consecutive Time
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