- Polymarket trader Prexpect earned $118,754 betting on Elon Musk’s weekly tweet activity.
- Strategy focuses on predicting how often Elon Musk posts each week.
- Trader built a real-time tracker website monitoring Musk tweets before prediction market prices adjust.
A Snapchat story meant for 47 close friends accidentally exposed one of the strangest and most consistently profitable strategies on Polymarket: betting on how many times Elon Musk tweets in a week.
The Leak Nobody Saw Coming
Someone posted their Polymarket winnings to Snapchat close friends last week, casually mentioning they had just made $19,000. One of those 47 people took a screenshot and posted it to Twitter. Within six hours it had 340,000 views. The wallet address was visible in the corner of the original image, and what it revealed stopped people mid-scroll.
The trader, tracked under the username Prexpect, had made $118,754 in profit across 1,943 predictions since joining Polymarket in November 2024. Every single bet was on the same market: how many times will Elon Musk tweet this week.
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The Strategy Behind the Money
The edge is simple once you see it. Every Monday, Polymarket opens markets asking whether Musk will post between 400 and 419 tweets in a week, 420 and 439, and so on. At market open, liquidity is thin and prices sit at one to two cents. This trader is already there, buying positions across multiple ranges before anyone else enters.
What Grok Said
When someone asked AI assistant Grok whether Musk knew about the strategy, the response was candid. The wallet had predicted Musk’s weekly tweet volume more accurately than any internal analytics tool Grok was aware of. Asked whether to tell Musk directly, Grok flagged the obvious problem: if Musk tweeted about it, his weekly count would change, the odds would shift, and the wallet would simply adjust. The system, Grok said, is self-correcting.
The Snapchat post was deleted within an hour. The account was privated. It made no difference. The trader has continued placing bets as though nothing happened.
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