- Portugal’s regulator ordered Polymarket to halt and face blocking over illegal political betting.
- Over €4M flowed into election markets before results, pushing total presidential volume above €110M.
- Betting odds shifted before public results, aligning with early circulation of exit poll projections.
Portugal’s gambling regulator has ordered the cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket to cease operations and face blocking in the country, after activity tied to the Portuguese presidential election drew regulatory scrutiny and raised questions over the timing of large betting flows.
According to reporting by Renascença, the Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ) ruled that Polymarket is operating illegally in Portugal because it lacks authorization and because national law prohibits betting on political events. The regulator said it notified the platform on Friday and gave it 48 hours to halt operations aimed at Portuguese users. As of Monday, the site remained accessible, prompting the SRIJ to prepare network-level blocking measures.
Regulator Cites Legal Prohibitions
In a response to Renascença, the SRIJ said it became aware of Polymarket “very recently” and classified its activity as illegal under Portuguese law. The regulator stated that the platform is not licensed to offer online betting services in Portugal and that wagering on political events, whether domestic or international, is expressly banned.
The authority added that its powers are limited to supervising licensed operators and to notifying unlicensed platforms to stop operating in Portugal voluntarily. As a result, the SRIJ said there is no guarantee that Portuguese users would recover funds placed on the platform if access is blocked.
Surge in Betting Before Results
Attention focused on Polymarket’s presidential election markets, where trading surged in the hours before official results were announced. Renascença reported that more than €4 million was invested in Portuguese presidential markets shortly before the outcome became public, with total trading across related markets exceeding €110 million.
Related: Polymarket Says CFTC Approval Allows It Intermediated Access to US Market Operations
Market probabilities shifted quickly. António José Seguro’s predicted chances rose from about 60% earlier in the day to roughly 95% by 6 p.m., an hour before polls closed, and reached near certainty when projections emerged. Over a two-hour window before the first results were released to the public, more than €5 million was traded across multiple election-related markets.
Exit Poll Timing and Market Moves
The timing of these moves coincided with the circulation of preliminary exit poll projections around 6 p.m., according to Renascença. While these projections were not broadcast until 8 p.m., they reportedly showed a secure victory for Seguro and were shared among polling firms and television journalists ahead of the official release.
By the time the first results were announced publicly, market prices on Polymarket had already converged on the eventual outcome. The SRIJ has not commented on whether it is examining the trading patterns beyond confirming the platform’s lack of authorization and its intent to block access in Portugal.
Related: Polymarket and Kalshi Face a New Rival as Gemini Enters Prediction Markets With Oversight
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