- The crypto market enters Q3 with strong bullish fundamentals from ETF and corporate buying.
- The case is built on strong July price action, record ETF inflows, and a corporate supply squeeze.
- However, historical data shows Q3 is traditionally the weakest quarter of the year for Bitcoin.
The crypto market is heading into the third quarter of 2025 with a powerfully bullish setup, but this momentum is on a collision course with a major historical headwind.
While the July data brings in a show of a strong Q2 ending, Q3 has traditionally been the weakest quarter of the year for Bitcoin, setting the stage for a major test of the market’s conviction.
July: Strong Gains and Record ETF Flows
The bullish case for Q3 begins with the overall crypto market’s performance in July. Bitcoin especially delivered a strong 29.74% gain in Q2.
This price strength provided a solid foundation and demonstrated resilient demand even at elevated levels, setting a positive tone as the quarter began.
Record ETF Inflows Signal Institutional Conviction
In July 2025, Bitcoin ETF inflows reached about $55 billion year‑to‑date, with 29 of the past 33 trading days showing net positive flows.
On July 30 alone, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed over $47 million, led by major issuers like BlackRock’s IBIT and Bitwise’s BITB.
Concurrently, Ether ETFs logged a 17‑day inflow streak and collected over $726 million in a single day. The relentless demand signals institutional conviction and shifts in capital allocation.
Related: After 48% July Gain, Can Ethereum Break Key $4K Resistance in August?
Corporate Treasury Demand Accelerates
At the same time, corporate treasuries kept buying Bitcoin at an accelerated pace, removing supply from the open market. MicroStrategy added 21,021 BTC using $2.521 billion raised, bringing its total holdings to nearly 600,000 BTC, over 3% of global supply, and delivering substantial unrealized gains through Q2 2025.
Broader corporate Bitcoin demand surged: total corporate Bitcoin holdings rose by 23% in Q2 to approximately 847,000 BTC, with new entrants including GameStop and Sequans Communications. This long-term holding strategy by corporations has created a supply squeeze, adding another layer to the bullish fundamental case.
The Historical Headwind: Q3’s Bearish Track Record
Despite this powerful bullish setup, the market now faces its seasonal nemesis. Data from Coinglass shows that Q3 has been the worst-performing quarter for Bitcoin since 2013, with an average return of just +6%. The main drag comes from August and September, which have posted negative average monthly returns (‑0.2% and ‑5.5% respectively).
That said, macro and regulatory conditions have changed materially. The U.S. passed the GENIUS Act and established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March 2025, injecting political legitimacy and raising demand from government-linked vehicles.
Deutsche Bank highlights institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, shrinking supply, and corporate demand as key pillars supporting Bitcoin’s long‑term momentum.
Bitcoin vs. Traditional Assets: Historical Returns
On an annualized basis, Bitcoin’s RoR (rate of returns) stood at 230%, nearly ten times the second‑best performing Nasdaq index.
In comparison, large U.S. stocks and high‑yield bonds returned 14% and 5.4% respectively, while gold returned 1.5% indicating Bitcoin’s exceptional long‑term performance.
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