- Token2049 sentiment is split as pros weigh ETF flows versus buyer fatigue
- Seasonality and ETF inflows support bulls while rotations and MSTR worry bears
- Rising stablecoin supply signals fresh liquidity for Q4 positioning
The question dominating Token2049 Singapore is whether the crypto bull cycle has already peaked or still has legs into 2026. Traders and analysts are split, with credible reasons on both sides. That divide itself – the so-called wall of worry, is shaping how capital is deployed right now.
Right now, the analysts seem to be split on whether we hit the bull cycle top or not.
Why bulls argue the cycle is not topped
Historically, Q4 has been the strongest quarter for crypto, especially in the last leg of a four-year cycle. However, the old rule that Bitcoin’s price surges every four years after its halving might not hold as much weight anymore.
Many now argue that the market is being shaped more by institutional flows, new ETFs, and the overall global economic climate than by the simple supply schedule. Plus, the presence of spot Bitcoin ETFs and steady inflows gives crypto a structural demand base not present in prior cycles, not to mention that the total stablecoin supply is increasing.
Related: The Four-Year Cycle Once Explained Bitcoin, Now Power and Policy Rewrite the Script
As @alpha_pls argued, crypto now trades macro. The business cycle has not topped, rate-cut expectations can still drive flows, and Bitcoin continues to follow gold’s path with a lag.
Over the past 90 days, stablecoin supply has expanded by more than $45 billion, led by USDT (+$19.6B), USDC (+$12.3B), and USDe (+$9.0B), according to RWA.xyz.
This surge in fresh stablecoin liquidity signals fiat inflows are still entering the market rather than contracting, one of the clearest data points giving bulls confidence that the rally is not done.
Why bears argue the cycle may have topped
On the other hand, there are those who point out a bear case where the bull cycle is topped. The market has gone up very fast, and some believe the classic four-year boom-and-bust cycle is simply running out of steam.
A good number of people believe that the market has exhausted its pool of new buyers, with the most accessible gains having already been realized.
Then, important institutional buyers, such as corporate Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), may be approaching allocation limits. Additionally, new regulations could make them more cautious.
It has also been suggested that the past crypto peaks were fueled by a frenzy of everyday investors. At the moment, the average person seems more interested in the stock market than crypto.
What’s more, Strategy (MSTR), a company famous for buying Bitcoin, broke below its 200-day moving average for the first time this cycle, which was seen by many as a bad omen for the entire crypto market.
In the end, the split opinion in the market outlook is more than a theoretical debate, since it directly shapes how traders manage their money. Both sides have good points, but nobody actually knows anything for certain, and we have yet to see which side was correct.
Related: Wall Street ETFs Have Killed the 4-Year Cycle. Here’s How Pros Are Trading Altcoins Now
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