- The Gambit: Sam Bankman-Fried is accelerating his pardon campaign, citing Trump’s recent clemency for Binance’s CZ and ex-Honduran President Hernández as precedent.
- The Odds: Prediction markets remain bearish, assigning only a 4% probability of a pardon in 2025, though long-tail 2027 odds have ticked up to 22%.
- The Argument: SBF claims the FTX estate rejected solvent buyout offers from Bullish, Tribe Capital, and Figure to maximize legal fees over creditor recovery.
Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) has accelerated his efforts to push President Donald Trump for a pardon. SBF hailed President Trump for correcting an injustice against the former President of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández.
“I’m so glad Juan Orlando is free -few are more deserving than him,” SBF noted.
Related: FTX Estate Plans 2025 Payouts At 2022 Prices, Giving SBF An Opening To Blame Lawyers
SBF Pushes for Pardon Bid from President as Markets See Otherwise
The former FTX boss has pushed for a Presidential pardon in the recent past. SBF has significantly increased his presence on the X platform via posts from a friend.
While still serving his 25-year sentence, SBF has increased the attacks on the current FTX team for gross misconduct. Furthermore, SBF believes that the FTX team led by John Ray has overstated the funds distribution process, thus costing the creditors more money.
Worth noting that the FTX team recovered up to $16.3 billion, which SBF is confident was more than enough to repay nearly all customers and creditors in full based on asset values at the time of the 2022 collapse.
Traders See Slim Chances
Nonetheless, prediction market traders from Kalshi only see a 4% chance that SBF is pardoned before the end of this year. Polymarket traders see only a 2% chance that President Trump will pardon SBF in 2025.
However, Polymarket traders see a 22% chance that President Trump may consider pardoning SBF in 2027.
Why Now?
According to SBF, he is eligible for a Presidential pardon based on the FTX case standing. In a recent post, SBF noted that global FTX creditors could have benefited more if the lawyers had approved the exchange’s sales.
The SBF attorneys have been arguing that the current FTX lawyers deny creditors a chance to get more refunds through dubious tactics. Moreover, the SBF team has pointed out that three credible finalists were willing to buy FTX.
The three institutions that were shortlisted for purchasing FTX included:
- Arj Tribe, an undisclosed public exchange.
- Thomas Farley’s Bullish with a valuation of nearly $9 billion.
- Mike Cagney’s Figure, which raised $5 billion in its IPO and is now valued at around $8 billion.
As such, SBF has pleaded with President Trump to re-examine his ruling as an injustice perpetrated by the Biden administration. Notably, President Trump recently pardoned Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) in a bid to attract international crypto investors back to the United States.
Ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, the political class in the United States is expected to be friendly to the crypto community for funding and votes. Moreover, the U.S. crypto community is believed to be more than 50 million voters, thus giving SBF a powerful bargaining edge as he pushes for a pardon.
Related: Polymarket Gives 3% Odds of SBF Release as ZachXBT Slams Pardon Push
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