- Senator Chris Murphy raised corruption concerns amid a surge in trading on prediction markets.
- Six Polymarket accounts made about $1.2 M betting on US strikes on Iran shortly before the attack.
- One account bought over 560,000 shares at $0.108 and received nearly $560,000.
Senator Chris Murphy has raised corruption concerns after a wave of prediction market bets correctly called US military strikes on Iran hours before the attacks took place.
Data from blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps shows six accounts placing large wagers on the prediction market platform Polymarket predicting the United States would strike Iran before Feb. 28, 2026.
The accounts were created shortly before the operation and bought “Yes” shares just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran. The six accounts collectively earned about $1.2 million after the market resolved.
One wallet purchased more than 560,000 shares at roughly $0.108 each. When the market settled at $1 after the strike occurred, that position paid nearly $560,000. Most of the wallets funding these trades appeared within 24 hours of the attack.
Murphy said the timing strongly suggests people with advance knowledge of the strike may have used prediction markets to profit. He warned that allowing bets tied to military decisions could create incentives for insiders to push for conflict if financial gains are possible.
Massive Surge in War-Related Betting
Prediction markets saw a sharp rise in trading volume as tensions with Iran escalated.
User-compiled data from Dune Analytics shows $425.4 million flowed into Polymarket’s geopolitics markets during the week ending March 1. The week before saw $163.9 million.
More than 150 accounts placed bets of at least $1,000 predicting the US strike by Saturday. The total value of those late wagers reached roughly $855,000. At least 16 of those accounts eventually made profits exceeding $100,000.
Murphy argued that prediction markets tied to war decisions could distort policy decisions. He said officials in sensitive meetings could potentially influence events if they held positions that would pay out after military action.
The senator also pointed to rising economic pressure on Americans. He said households already face higher fuel and grocery costs linked to geopolitical conflict while others may be making money from the same events.
Related: Iran’s Multi-Billion Dollar Cryptocurrency Market Faces New Scrutiny Amid Conflict
Calls for Ban on War Prediction Markets
Murphy said he is preparing legislation to ban prediction markets connected to government actions and military decisions.
He has previously described these platforms as “corrupt and destabilizing,” arguing that insiders with nonpublic information can manipulate outcomes by betting before the public learns the news.
The proposal arrives as the US Senate voted 53-47 to reject a bipartisan resolution that would have limited the war powers of President Donald Trump regarding continued military action against Iran without congressional approval.
The debate has intensified scrutiny across the entire prediction market industry.
Related: SEC Proposes Token Classification to White House as CFTC Targets Prediction Markets
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.
