- Bitcoin’s Q4 returns average 79% since 2013, historically its strongest quarter.
- Ethereum mirrors Bitcoin’s trend, showing both rally and retracement cycles.
- Meanwhile, 2025’s Q4 begins slightly negative amid consolidation and slower inflows.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have entered the last quarter of 2025 with a cautious start, showing weaker performance than usual for this time of year, which has traditionally been good for cryptocurrencies.
Data from CoinGlass shows both Bitcoin and Ethereum have had small losses so far in Q4, even though past years often saw big gains late in the year due to increased institutional interest and easier monetary policies. Currently, Bitcoin is priced around $113,060, down 2.4% in the past month, while Ethereum has dropped more sharply by 9% to about $4,181.
Strong Historical Gains vs. Current Caution
According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin usually performs very well in Q4, averaging an 79% return since 2013, with a median gain of 48%. This quarter has historically been Bitcoin’s best, with huge rallies in 2013, 2017, and 2020 when prices jumped by 479%, 215%, and 168%, respectively.
However, Q4 has also seen major losses during downturns, such as a 45% drop in 2018 and a 24% fall in 2019, showing how volatile Bitcoin can be. The range of Q4 returns varies widely, from a 45% loss to a nearly 60% gain in different years.
Ethereum shows a similar trend, gaining a lot in bull markets and dropping sharply in bear markets. Both coins had strong rebounds in 2023 and 2024, helped by more institutional involvement and better economic conditions.
Q4 2025 Market Context
So far in Q4 2025, the market has been more cautious. Bitcoin ended Q3 up 6.31%, reaching around $114,000, thanks to public companies adding it to their treasuries. It even hit a new all-time high of over $126,000 before falling back after the U.S. imposed a 100% tariff on China.
Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Consolidates as Derivatives Activity Surges
Ethereum gained nearly 66.55% in Q3, reaching almost $5,000, but has cooled off in early Q4. Analysts say this slowdown is normal after steady growth fueled by ETF investments and accumulation throughout the year.
The Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut, bringing rates to their lowest in nearly three years, has encouraged more risk-taking in markets. Meanwhile, U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs attracted over $9 billion in combined inflows in Q3, showing growing institutional trust in these assets.
Seasonal Patterns Suggest a Potential Rebound
Historically, Q4 is the best quarter for Bitcoin, with positive returns in 8 of the last 12 years. November and December have been especially strong, with average gains of 46% and 4.7%, respectively.
Even though the start of Q4 is slow this year, history suggests that the final months often bring a recovery. Bitcoin and Ethereum are following this usual pattern, where early-quarter weakness can lead to a stronger finish.
Analysts believe that ongoing ETF inflows and continued easing in policy could help push prices higher before the year ends.
Related: Bitcoin Q4 Bull Market Intact as CryptoQuant Analysts Flag Signals Toward $130K
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