- Standard Chartered Digital Asset Head Geoff Kendrick forecast BTC at $200K by year-end
- The FOMC meeting on March 19 could play a massive role in shaping Bitcoin’s prices
- BTC could rebound sharply if the likelihood of a rate cut in May increases from 50% to 75%
Bitcoin saw a 2% price increase in the past 24 hours, recovering from a daily low of $79,059.43 to an intraday high of $83,737.45. This volatility highlights the leading cryptocurrency’s sensitivity to broader market forces.
According to Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Bitcoin’s performance is closely tied to the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks. He notes that volatility-adjusted returns put Bitcoin in the same league as Tesla, Meta, and Apple.
What’s Driving Bitcoin’s Price?
Kendrick argues that Bitcoin’s recent dip wasn’t due to any fundamental weakness. Instead, he points to macroeconomic factors affecting global risk assets. He believes Bitcoin’s recovery hinges on two key things: First, a rebound in high-growth tech stocks could signal a positive shift for Bitcoin.
Second, further accumulation of Bitcoin, like the US government’s plan to create a Bitcoin reserve, could be a bullish catalyst. If other countries jump on the bandwagon, demand for BTC could surge again.
Fed Policy: A Major Wildcard
A crucial short-term influence on Bitcoin’s price is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on March 19, and the market is almost certain (97%) that rates will stay put. This decision could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price.
If the Fed hints at future rate cuts, Bitcoin could get a boost from renewed investor confidence and a “risk-on” environment. Kendrick suggests that if the odds of a May rate cut increase from 50% to 75%, BTC could see a strong rebound.
Key Price Levels to Watch
The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $87,388, is a key resistance level that Bitcoin needs to conquer to regain bullish momentum.
However, crypto market analyst Ali Martinez highlights on-chain data showing strong support at $79,270 and a deeper support zone at $69,450. If Bitcoin slips below $76,500, it could retest these lower support levels.
Related: Senator Lummis Reintroduces Bill for US Bitcoin Reserve of 1 Million BTC
Despite the short-term uncertainty, Kendrick remains steadfast in his long-term outlook, reaffirming his prediction that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
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