- Polymarket odds for the US acquiring Greenland jumped from 7% to over 21% in two weeks.
- Kalshi shows a 46% chance that Trump will take over part of Greenland.
- Trump tied Greenland directly to tariffs, and now markets are shaky.
The market is no longer treating Greenland as a joke trade. On Polymarket, the contract asking whether the United States takes control of Greenland before 2027 moved from 7-8% at the start of the year to around 21-22% this week.
More than $14 million sits in the contract, placing it among the largest active bets on the platform. Two large wallets added roughly $300,000 combined on the “Yes” side over the last two weeks, locking in potential payouts near $750,000 each if the outcome hits.
Kalshi tells a different story but with the same direction. Odds are near 46%, far above Polymarket, and largely unchanged week over week. The gap shows disagreement over timing and the legal path, not over seriousness. Traders are no longer pricing this as zero probability.
Tariffs Turn Politics Into a Tradable Catalyst
Trump tied tariffs directly to Greenland. A 10% duty on goods from eight European countries starts on February 1, rising to 25% in June if no deal links back to Greenland. Polymarket shows 40% odds that Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, Germany, the United Kingdom, and France face new tariffs next month. This is no longer abstract geopolitics but a dated macro trigger.
The European response remains defensive. EU states line up behind Denmark, pause trade talks, and prepare retaliatory measures targeting services and finance, where the US runs a surplus.
European Allies Rally Behind Denmark
Greenland has become a focal point for NATO’s Arctic posture, as several European allies sent small military teams to join a Denmark-led exercise. The deployments are largely symbolic, with limited personnel involved, while Denmark continues to shoulder primary responsibility through its Arctic force of around 100–150 troops. Other NATO allies have sent liaison officers or are evaluating participation amid broader Arctic security concerns.
Trade pressure adds to the strain as tariffs already apply, with a higher tier scheduled later this year. Europe lacks the military depth to replace US support quickly, and estimates to close that gap run near $1 trillion over time. That weakness strengthens the US bargaining position and keeps the Greenland timeline alive in markets.
Interestingly, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that Europe would not be “blackmailed” into surrender. He added that the priority is to strengthen Arctic security as a shared transatlantic interest.
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