- Trump’s chance of ending the Russia-Ukraine war in 90 days surged to 37%.
- There is a higher chance of the war ending by the end of 2025.
- The ongoing war significantly affects the global market, including crypto assets.
According to data from Polymarket, a leading prediction platform, US President Donald Trump has a 37% chance of negotiating a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine within his first 90 days in office.
The ceasefire probability jumped 14% from the previous 23% chance after Ukraine declared its readiness for a 30-day ceasefire.
Meanwhile, broader sentiments point to the end of 2025 before the war between Russia and Ukraine ends, with the odds at 79%. Considering the difference between both sets of predictions, there is heightened skepticism over Trump’s ability to end the war as swiftly as he promised. The US President had promised to end the war within 24 hours of resuming office.
Despite the delay, Polymarket data highlights an increase in bets of up to 14%, as already mentioned, favoring Trump’s potential to end the war within 90 days. However, it is worth noting that while more people think that would not be possible, it reflects renewed optimism following the US President’s recent statements.
Related: Russia’s New Bitcoin Reserve Proposal to Counter Global Sanctions
Trump’s Potential Role in Ceasefire Talks
In the meantime, political observers acknowledge Trump’s influence over US foreign policy. They understand that diplomatic moves alone would not be enough to broker an agreement between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, leaders of Russia and Ukraine.
That puts Trump in a relatively better position as a significant figure who could play a role in ending the ongoing war.
Crypto Market Reacts to Ceasefire News
It is worth noting that geopolitical uncertainty across the globe, including the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, is having a notable impact on the global market and crypto assets.
Related: Russia Sentences Citizen Over Crypto Transfers to Ukraine
The news of a potential ceasefire triggered a positive reaction across the crypto market. Bitcoin led the price jump with a 9.2% rally, recovering from its latest dip that saw the pioneer cryptocurrency drop below $77,000 for the first time since November 2024.
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