- BLS reported November payrolls up 64,000, with unemployment at 4.6%.
- 43-day shutdown-delayed data kept traders cautious about reading unemployment too cleanly.
- Bitcoin swung, and December 18 CPI became the next macro trigger.
US labor data delivered a shock to investors this week, triggering sharp, erratic moves in crypto markets. The latest Non-Farm Payrolls report revealed stronger-than-expected job creation, yet unemployment simultaneously climbed to its highest level in years.
Traders struggled to price this divergence for interest rates, inflation, and digital assets. Bitcoin spiked on the release before reversing lower, a classic reaction to unresolved uncertainty across risk markets.
The Data – Payrolls
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. economy added 64,000 jobs in November; economists had expected about 50,000 new positions.
Beyond beating forecasts, the print marked a sharp rebound from October, when payrolls collapsed by 105,000. September data had previously shown 119,000 jobs added, underscoring the extreme volatility in recent hiring trends.
The Data – Unemployment
However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, exceeding the expected 4.5%. Significantly, this reading marks the highest unemployment level since September 2021.
The report paints a contradictory picture. Job creation improved, yet more Americans remain out of work. Market participants view this combination as a signal of uneven economic momentum rather than a return to strength.
Related: U.S. Jobs Report Miss: Payrolls Up 73K, Fed Cut Bets Rise, Bitcoin Reacts
Bitcoin Price Action
Bitcoin initially climbed following the data release, as traders focused on the rising unemployment as a catalyst for Fed cuts. However, prices later pulled back as the payroll growth tempered those same expectations. At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded near $87,700.
The asset posted a 1.83% gain over 24 hours but remained down 5.78% for the week. Moreover, daily trading volume approached $49.7 billion, showing elevated activity during the macro release.
Market Cap Context
With roughly 20 million coins in circulation, Bitcoin’s market value stands near $1.75 trillion. Consequently, even modest price swings carry outsized implications for broader crypto sentiment. Macro data has effectively become the dominant short-term driver for digital assets.
Fed Policy Focus Shifts Toward Inflation Data
Notably, this jobs report arrived shortly after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week. During the post-meeting briefing, Chair Jerome Powell explicitly signaled caution regarding further easing.
CME Odds
Additionally, CME FedWatch data showed little change in rate expectations following the labor release. Traders assigned a 24% probability to a January rate cut, while odds favored holding rates steady.
Moreover, futures markets continued to price the first potential rate cut in April. Hence, attention now shifts to the upcoming Consumer Price Index report on December 18. That data may clarify whether inflation or labor conditions guide policy decisions ahead of the January FOMC meeting.
Related: Hold Two Payrolls Cash in Bitcoin as Hedge: VC Tells Businesses
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