- Bitcoin and Ethereum face volatility as $23B in options expire, hitting max pain levels.
- U.S. shutdown fears and strong GDP data heighten short-term crypto market caution.
- High retail leverage in altcoins triggers rapid liquidations, amplifying market-wide losses.
The crypto market is under sharp pressure this week, reversing the bullish tone that marked early September. Bitcoin and altcoins have stumbled into volatile trading ranges, with panic selling surfacing as whales appear to take advantage of weak positioning.
Analyst Ash Crypto highlights four key factors driving the downturn.
$23 Billion Options Expiry Pulls Prices Toward “Max Pain”
One of the main drivers is the upcoming quarterly options expiration. About $23 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts are set to expire today, September 26, 2025, creating turbulence as large players adjust their position.
Ash Crypto notes that whales often steer prices toward “max pain” levels, where the majority of options expire worthless. This quarter, that sits near $110,000 for Bitcoin and $3,700 for Ethereum. Traders caught outside these zones are now dealing with sharp swings.
U.S. Shutdown Fears Add to Macro Pressure
Beyond market mechanics, macro conditions are amplifying the stress as well. The U.S. government faces a chance of a shutdown by October 1, raising caution across risk markets. Historically, shutdowns weigh on equities and crypto alike. At the same time, the revised Q2 GDP came in at 3.8%, well above the 3.3% forecast.
Strong growth reduces the odds of near-term rate cuts, a bearish signal for speculative assets like crypto.
Market Cap Drops as Sentiment Turns Fearful
Data from CoinMarketCap shows the global crypto market cap slipped 2.1% to $3.76 trillion, while 24-hour trading volume jumped 35%. This suggests active liquidations, not passive drift.
Sentiment has also weakened. The Fear & Greed Index slid closer to “fear,” while major tokens such as BNB are flashing oversold signals. Traders are becoming cautious, and confidence is eroding quickly.
Retail Leverage Triggers Cascading Liquidations
High leverage among retail traders has magnified losses. At one point, altcoin open interest nearly doubled Bitcoin’s, showing smaller traders piling into risky positions.
Once prices turned lower, liquidations snowballed, deepening the sell-off. Ash Crypto argues that whales may have deliberately set up this correction, using September’s early rally to trap leveraged longs before forcing a downturn.
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