- Ethereum gains 3.75% daily, signaling early strength despite a weekly 4.22% drop.
- Moving averages show early bullish trends, unlike November 2021 cycle peaks.
- Macro factors and pro-crypto policies favor altcoins and potential capital rotation.
Ethereum (ETH) has shown renewed strength, climbing 3.75% in the last 24 hours, but many investors still fear a repeat of the 2021 bull market peak.
According to analyst Dan Gambardello, those fears are misplaced. He argues that today’s market structure is fundamentally different and that key technical and macro indicators suggest Ethereum is in the early stages of a new bull cycle, not at the end of one.
Technical Setup Shows 2025 Cycle Different From 2021
The primary argument against a market top is that the current technical foundation for Ethereum is much stronger than it was at the November 2021 peak.
How is the current price structure healthier?
Unlike the parabolic peak in 2021, the current price move exhibits a healthier structure of higher highs and higher lows, with measured redistribution phases. While the price is near the 2021 peak, ETH 2025 momentum indicators are nowhere near the same “overextended” levels, as shown by the recent record-high on-chain transaction volume.
Related: Ethereum Hits Record Highs With 50 Million Transactions in a Single Month
ETH moving averages support
Moving averages support this view. The 20-week moving average recently crossed above both the 50-week and 200-week moving averages, suggesting a strong upward trend.
This differs sharply from November 2021, when Ethereum showed significant overextensions and was near the apex of a bull cycle. Consequently, the technical foundation points to the early stages of a new upward move rather than the end of a cycle.
Macro Environment: A Tailwind, Not a Headwind
Beyond the chart, the macroeconomic environment is far more favorable for crypto now than it was during the last cycle top.
How do today’s macro conditions compare to the last cycle?
In 2021 and 2022, the market was fighting against quantitative tightening and rising interest rates. Today, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting rates, which will increase liquidity and is typically a major tailwind for risk-on assets like crypto.
2025 regulatory outlook favors crypto
The regulatory environment is also improving. Pro-crypto legislation like the Clarity Act and the ongoing approval of spot ETFs are creating a much more favorable backdrop for a potential capital rotation from Bitcoin into Ethereum and other altcoins.
Related: Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction: Foundation Sale Sparks Market Debate
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