- Prediction market odds for a US Spot XRP ETF approval in 2025 surge past 99%
- Bloomberg’s Balchunas suggests XRP “might be next” following subtle SEC guidance change
- SEC’s shift in stance reflected in the guidance letter Q&A section, apparently enabled SOL/LTC/HBAR filings
Market anticipation for a U.S. Spot XRP ETF has reached fever pitch, with prediction market odds on Polymarket soaring above 99% for approval occurring within 2025. This dramatic surge in confidence follows comments from Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggesting XRP “might be next in line,” prompted by a seemingly minor but significant shift in SEC guidance interpretation identified by his colleague James Seyffart.
Balchunas’ remark came in response to Seyffart confirming a wave of imminent ETF approvals for other major altcoins like Solana, Litecoin, and HBAR, suggesting the regulatory pathway may now be clearer than previously thought.
Related: A $10 Million XRP Purchase Could Send Prices to $15 — Analysts Warn of Shrinking Supply on Binance
Why Balchunas Says XRP ETF “Might Be Next” After SEC Shift
The core catalyst appears to be a nuanced interpretation of recent SEC staff guidance. James Seyffart pinpointed Question 11 within a Q&A letter issued by the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance. While ostensibly related to IPO procedures, Seyffart explained that the language effectively treated ETFs similarly to securities in this context.
This subtle shift, previously overlooked by many, reportedly gave fund issuers the confidence to proceed with filings for assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Balchunas, acknowledging this development which enabled the SOL/LTC/HBAR filings, logically speculated that XRP could follow suit, stating it “might be next.”
Related: Ripple’s Acquisition Spree Builds Financial Hub; Is XRP Integration the Next Spark?
Polymarket Odds Hit 99%: Market Bets Heavily on 2025 XRP ETF Approval
Prediction markets, where users bet on the outcome of future events, reacted swiftly to this analysis. Odds on Polymarket for a Spot XRP ETF approval before the end of 2025 skyrocketed past 99%, jumping 28 percentage points in just the past week according to the draft.
This represents extremely high conviction from market participants, likely driven by the combined weight of Balchunas’ expert opinion, Seyffart’s regulatory interpretation, and the precedent set by the apparently imminent SOL/LTC/HBAR approvals. If this market sentiment proves correct, XRP could soon gain the same regulated institutional access pathway enjoyed by Bitcoin and Ethereum.
XRP Price Today: Can ETF Hype Break $2.75 Resistance?
XRP currently trades around $2.61, showing signs of recovery after a steep correction earlier this month. The Bollinger Bands (BB) indicate that volatility is contracting, with the mid-band resistance around $2.74 and lower support at $2.22.
The RSI stands at 51.26 while the MACD shows a mild bullish crossover, with the histogram barely in positive territory. However, the BoP indicates that sellers still hold a slight edge and XRP must break above $2.75 to confirm a bullish reversal.
Should it clear this resistance, the next target lies near $3.00, aligning with the upper Bollinger Band. A failure to sustain current levels could drag XRP back toward $2.22, where it previously found support.
If momentum strengthens alongside renewed ETF speculation, XRP could push above $2.75 and test $3.00 in the short term. Breaking beyond $3.00 would open the path toward the $3.50 level.
On the other hand, if market enthusiasm fades or ETF discussions stall, XRP risks slipping below $2.40, potentially revisiting the $2.20 support.
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