XRP ETF Approval: SEC Odds a Coin Toss, Say Analysts – Litecoin & Doge Have Better Shot?

• XRP ETF approval faces challenges because the SEC classifies XRP as a security.  
• Litecoin and Dogecoin ETFs have higher approval chances because the SEC sees them as commodities.
• Ripple’s ongoing legal battle delays XRP ETF approval with a decision expected by 2025.

The question of an XRP ETF receiving approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is very much up in the air. According to Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, the odds of the SEC giving the green light to an XRP ETF are currently sitting at 65%. 

SEC Yet to Acknowledge XRP ETF Filings

Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary, 21Shares, and WisdomTree are among the big names that have filed S-1 registration statements with the SEC for XRP ETFs. These firms have also submitted Form 19b-4 filings to the SEC through exchanges like Nasdaq and Cboe. However, the SEC has yet to even say anything publicly about them. The agency has until October 17, 2025, to decide on these filings.

Balchunas and Seyffart think XRP ETF approval will be tough because the SEC doesn’t see XRP as a commodity. This is different from other digital assets, like Litecoin and Dogecoin, which the SEC does classify as commodities, boosting their chances of ETF approval.

Besides XRP, Balchunas and Seyffart have given higher approval probabilities to other altcoin ETFs. A Litecoin ETF is tipped as the most likely to succeed, with a strong 90% chance of approval, mainly because the SEC has already recognized the 19b-4 filings for Litecoin ETFs and agrees it’s a commodity.

Dogecoin ETF: 75% Chance of SEC Nod

Dogecoin is another altcoin ETF seen in a positive light, with an estimated 75% chance of approval. While the SEC hasn’t yet acknowledged the 19b-4 filings for Dogecoin, the agency’s view of DOGE as a commodity has helped the approval odds.

Related: Ripple Seeks Time Extension to Respond to SEC Appeal

Separately, the analysts give Solana a 70% chance of success for its ETF application. Even though the SEC doesn’t classify Solana as a commodity, the altcoin’s growing popularity has caught the eye of some market watchers, making it a promising contender.

Ripple Lawsuit Cloud Hangs Over XRP ETF

The legal battle between Ripple and the SEC is still a roadblock for XRP ETF approval. Any progress on the ETF application will likely hit delays until this court case is resolved.

Related: Meme Coin ETFs and Altcoin Funds: Tuttle Capital Tests SEC Limits

Seyffart stressed that the SEC needs to decide once and for all whether XRP is considered a security or a commodity before it can approve an ETF. The analysts also pointed out that if the SEC does acknowledge the 19b-4 filings for XRP and Dogecoin in the coming weeks, it could make approval more likely.