- XRP has dropped more than 60% from its 2025 peak amid bearish sentiment.
- Analysts say charts show a short-term relief rally toward $1.80–$2.00 may occur.
- Historical Gaussian channel patterns indicate XRP may eventually fall toward $0.90 support.
XRP has fallen over 60% from its 2025 peak and sentiment across social media is turning increasingly bearish. But one analyst says the charts are telling a more nuanced story, and that the real danger may not be the current drop, but the rally that comes next.
What the Gaussian Channel Is Showing
Using the two-week Gaussian channel, a trend indicator that has accurately mapped every major XRP cycle since 2013, the analyst notes a striking pattern that has repeated without exception across every peak in XRP’s history.
Every single time XRP has topped out from a major cycle high and fallen back into the channel’s green zone, it has always, without exception, drifted to the lower end of that channel before finding a real bottom.
Source: X
It happened after the 2013 peak, the 2017 peak, and the 2021 peak. Now, following the 2025 high, XRP has once again re-entered that same green zone, currently sitting around $1.37. The lower end of the channel sits near $0.90.
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A Rally Is Coming, But Do Not Trust It
Before reaching that lower target, the charts point to a short-term relief rally. Here is what to expect and why it could be dangerous:
- Relief target: $1.80 to $2.00, where the 50 and 20 EMAs sit on the two-week chart.
- Historical precedent: After the 2021 peak, XRP rallied 170% before rolling over and exposing the rest of the bear market.
- The trap: That kind of move feels bullish in the moment, but it is not necessarily the bottom.
- Dead cat signal: If XRP fails to reclaim and hold above $2.40, the rally higher is likely a dead cat bounce that traps buyers.
The analyst is direct about it. A move back toward $2.00 or even $2.40 would pull in buyers who mistake relief for recovery. Those buyers could be left exposed when the next leg down arrives.
The Level That Changes Everything
XRP held above $1.80 level for over 400 days before losing it in January. That former support is now resistance. If XRP cannot reclaim it convincingly, the path toward $0.70 later in 2026 remains very much open.
Related: ‘Bank in a Hoodie’: Davinci Jeremie Slams XRP Amid Wave 4 Slump
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