XRP Price Outlook: Capitulation, Critical Support, and the Road to $35?

• XRP hits heavy realized losses, signaling late-stage correction and extreme market fear.
• Analysts see a potential $1.11 retest or a deeper $0.50 dip before a confirmed bottom forms.
• Long-term bullish outlooks suggest XRP could reach $9–$11, with AI models projecting up to $35.

XRP is once again at a crossroads. The coin has so far fallen nearly 70% from its peak of $3.66 earlier in the cycle. It now trades in the $1.30 range as bears continue to gain the upper hand.

Monthly losses have approached 30% amid persistent bearish pressure. Yet beneath the surface, on-chain data and technical structures suggest the market may be approaching a pivotal phase.

XRP Capitulation Signal: $908M Realized Loss Spike

According to on-chain analytics firm Santiment, XRP just recorded a $908 million realized loss event, the most extensive weekly spike since November 2022.

Realized losses occur when investors sell at prices lower than their purchase cost. These spikes typically happen during periods of fear and panic. The broader crypto market’s Fear and Greed Index recently plunged to 5, signaling extreme fear.

The last time XRP saw a comparable realized loss milestone was roughly $1.93 billion in 2022. Interestingly, the asset went on to rally 114% over the following eight months.

While history does not guarantee repetition, such extreme capitulation events often mark emotional market bottoms. Once weaker hands exit, selling pressure can become exhausted, allowing relatively modest buying demand to push prices higher.

For now, the on-chain data suggests XRP may be in the late stages of a fear-driven phase.

Short-Term Risk: Is $1.11 Still on the Table?

Despite the capitulation signal, some analysts warn that another dip could come first. CryptoBull recently argued that a retest of $1.11 remains “very possible,” describing it as a final shakeout before a stronger move higher. 

Notably, XRP touched that level during a major sell-off on February 6, which marked a 70% loss from its $3.66 peak. Historically, XRP has endured steep corrections before major expansions:

• From $3 to $0.11 (2018 to 2020)
• From $1.96 to $0.29 (2021 to 2022)
• From $3.66 to $1.11 (current cycle, ~70% drop)

From this perspective, the recent decline may fit within XRP’s historical volatility profile. However, not everyone agrees that the bottom is near.

Bearish Scenario: $0.50 in View?

According to analyst The Great Martis, XRP’s correction may not be finished. He points to repeated tests of key support levels as a structural weakness rather than a strength.

If XRP decisively loses its long-standing $1 support zone, a deeper downside toward $0.50 could unfold. From present trading levels near $1.30, that would represent another 61% drop. Meanwhile, from the $3.66 peak, it would mark an 86% correction.

The analyst frames this not as a crash but as a measured continuation of a larger corrective process.

Bullish Case: $9 to $11 Within Weeks?

On the opposite side, CryptoBull maintains that XRP’s 3-day chart resembles a 2017-style breakout pattern. He projects a $4 price run in the near term with extension toward $9 shortly after. He believes a $11 price is also possible should the bull phase gain momentum.

Notably, these outlooks represent a potential 2x–7x move from current levels. 

While he based the outlook on technicals, some analysts believe XRP could enter a strong expansion phase if market conditions improve and regulatory clarity strengthens in the U.S.

The $35 AI Projection

Adding fuel to the debate, analyst Xaif Crypto shared an AI model outlining a potential path toward $35 in 2026. The model shows XRP climbing gradually through  $2 → $3 → $5 → $9 → $11 before accelerating toward $18 → $25 → $29 → $35.

At $35, XRP’s market capitalization would approach $2.1 trillion, placing it among the largest global assets. Supporters argue that even partial fulfillment of this model would make 2026 a defining year for XRP. 

However, skeptics question whether the capital inflows required for such a valuation are realistic, especially considering Ripple’s escrow. For context, Ripple’s holdings alone would be worth nearly $1.4 trillion at $35 per XRP.

Essentially, the $35 projection remains speculative, but it highlights the long-term optimism within parts of the XRP community.

Ultimately, XRP is currently in a late-stage correction, with heavy losses and high fear — conditions that often come before recoveries. Technically, one more big drop could still happen before a confirmed bottom. 

Essentially, XRP is either forming a base for its next move up or finishing its final shakeout. The next few weeks will show which path it takes.

Related: Why XRP is Down Today-According to ChatGPT, Claude, and Grok