- Polymarket data shows an 88% chance of XRP hitting $2.90 in September, but low odds for a major rally
- The data suggests traders expect a range-bound month between the $2.70 support and $3.20 resistance
- Technical indicators like the MACD and CMF are also signaling a period of consolidation for XRP’s price
While XRP has slipped nearly 6% over the past week, the prediction markets are not calling for a major crash. Instead, data from Polymarket suggests traders are betting on a range-bound September with a modest recovery.
According to Polymarket odds, there is an overwhelming 88% chance of XRP to hit $2.90 by the end of September, signaling a month of consolidation rather than an explosive breakout.
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What All Are Prediction Markets Pricing In for September?
The data from Polymarket provides a clear look at the market’s collective expectations for XRP’s price by the end of the month.
Most likely XRP price target
The highest-conviction bet is on XRP reaching $2.90, with Polymarket traders assigning this an 88% probability. The odds for it hitting $3.00 also remain strong at 74%.
What are the odds of a major rally?
Confidence drops off sharply at higher levels. The market is only giving a 49% chance of the price hitting $3.20, and the odds for any target above $4.00 are in the single digits. This shows that while traders expect a slight recovery, they are not betting on a massive surge this month.
XRP Price Analysis: Where are Prices Heading?
The technical indicators on the daily chart support the prediction market’s view of a consolidating, range-bound market.
What are the key technical indicators showing?
The MACD is under a bearish crossover, and the CMF has slipped to -0.10, signaling capital outflows. The Awesome Oscillator is also slightly in the red. These indicators all point to fading bullish momentum and weak buying pressure in the short term.
What is the key support and resistance range to watch?
XRP is currently hovering near the lower Bollinger Band at $2.82. The immediate resistance to watch is the middle band at $2.94. For a bullish case to build, the price must break above this level. On the downside, a failure to hold the $2.80 zone could push the price down to the $2.71 support.
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What is the bottom line for September?
For the bullish case, XRP needs to decisively push through the $2.94 mid-Bollinger resistance. A break above this level would open the door to $3.17 and potentially $3.30.
If XRP finds the strength to move above $3.30, there is room to extend the rally to $3.60. On the bearish side, failure to hold the $2.80 zone could quickly push XRP down to the $2.71 level, coinciding with the lower Bollinger Band.
If selling intensifies, deeper support levels at $2.50 and $2.40 could come into play as well.
Overall, the outlook for XRP heading into the end of September appears to be one of range-bound trading rather than explosive price action.
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