- XRP has fallen below its average holder cost basis, triggering loss-driven selling pressure.
- Macro uncertainty and fading early rate-cut expectations are weighing on sentiment.
- Institutional demand remains relatively resilient, with ETF flows avoiding recent outflows.
XRP is trading near $1.35, down about 2.4% in the past 24 hours, as weakening on-chain profitability, macroeconomic uncertainty, and bearish investor sentiment continue to weigh on the market. Despite the pullback, institutional demand indicators remain relatively stable, preventing a sharper decline.
Below is a structured look at what is currently driving XRP’s price action and what investors are watching next.
Current Market Situation: XRP Falls Below Holder Cost Basis
Recent on-chain data shows that XRP has entered a stress phase often seen during late-stage corrections. Analytics firm Glassnode reports that XRP has fallen below its aggregate holder cost basis, meaning many investors are now holding at a loss.
- XRP’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) dropped from 1.16 (July 2025) to around 0.96, indicating that many transactions are being executed at a loss.
- The realized price was estimated near $1.48, now above the current market price, confirming negative profitability for average holders.
- Similar on-chain structures were observed in early 2022, a period that saw extended consolidation rather than an immediate rebound.
Historically, such conditions often lead to capitulation, loss realization, and gradual stabilization, rather than a quick price recovery.
Related: XRP Risks Drop to $1.28 as Analysts Flag Weak Market Structure
ETF Flows Show Institutional Resilience
While retail sentiment remains soft, institutional demand appears relatively stable:
- U.S. XRP spot ETFs recorded zero net flows on Feb. 12, avoiding outflows for an eighth consecutive session.
- Since launch, XRP spot ETFs have seen about $1.23 billion in cumulative inflows, outperforming Bitcoin spot ETF flow trends over the same period, where net outflows have recently dominated.
Steady ETF flows could mean that institutional investors are holding positions rather than exiting, which may be limiting downside volatility.
Catalysts to Watch in the Near Term
Several events could shape XRP’s short-term trajectory:
- U.S. CPI inflation data, which may influence Fed policy expectations
- Spot ETF flow trends, especially if inflows resume strongly
- Regulatory and institutional adoption developments related to cross-border payments
- Broader liquidity shifts tied to global interest rate changes and possible yen carry-trade unwind.
What’s Next?
In the near term, XRP may see one more dip before a meaningful bottom forms. Analysts expect the next support zone to lie around $1.31–$1.26, with a deeper fallback toward $1.19 possible if selling pressure continues, while $1.39–$1.44 remains the immediate resistance area after the recent rejection there.
Market-moving events such as upcoming inflation data could trigger short-term volatility, but a sustained recovery signal would likely require XRP to break and hold above roughly $1.40–$1.41,
Related: XRP (XRP) Price Prediction: Can Bulls Flip $1.72 to Shift Trend?
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