- XRP forms first green candle in 9 weeks, signaling potential start of Phase 4 rally.
- Analyst sees $21.5 target using Fibonacci extension from past market cycles.
- Momentum indicators may confirm bullish breakout, echoing patterns from XRP’s 2017 surge.
A technical analyst says XRP may be approaching a major rally after a bullish candlestick pattern appeared on its chart. The signal could mark the start of what the analyst describes as “Phase 4” of XRP’s market cycle. The projection points to a potential price target near $21.5 if the pattern unfolds.
First Major Green Candle in Nine Weeks
Market analyst CW recently shared a long-term price chart highlighting a bullish candlestick formation on XRP. The post features XRP candlesticks on the three-week timeframe. It shows XRP forming the first green candle after three consecutive phases of red candles.
In other words, XRP is forming its first major green candle in nine weeks after bearish forces dominated the market. The chart suggests that XRP may be entering a new stage in its broader market cycle.
Notably, the observation comes as XRP is trading 61.5% below its July 2025 high of $3.65. XRP is currently trading at $1.42, a 3.2% uptick in the past day. CW said the candlestick formation could signal renewed buying interest, but the next confirmation depends on momentum indicators.
Momentum Indicator May Confirm Next Move
Furthermore, the chart includes a momentum indicator. According to the analysis, the indicator is approaching a point where it could produce a bullish crossover. CW stated that the appearance of this bullish signal would confirm the start of what the chart describes as XRP’s “Phase 4” rally.
“Once the sub-indicator shows a bullish signal, XRP’s real Phase 4 rally will begin,” the analyst wrote when sharing the chart.
Four-Phase Market Cycle Points to Possible $21.5 XRP Target
Meanwhile, the chart highlights a repeating four-phase market cycle that the analyst says has appeared in XRP’s past price movements.
The first phase usually begins with a strong breakout after a long period of accumulation. The second phase often follows with a sharp correction after the rally. The third phase is a consolidation stage, where the price moves within a tighter range.
The fourth phase is the expansion stage. In this phase, price tends to move quickly as market momentum increases.
The analyst compares the current structure with previous cycles, including the one before XRP’s major rally in 2017. During that period, XRP surged to an all-time high after breaking out of a long consolidation.
To estimate a possible target, the analyst used a Fibonacci extension tool. This method measures past price movements to project where the next move could go. Based on this approach, the 6.618 Fibonacci extension suggests a potential target of around $21.5.
The Road to $21.5 Target
Earlier this month, analyst Hov made a similar prediction, suggesting XRP could reach a long-term target between $15 and $20 despite current market weakness.
According to his Elliott Wave analysis, XRP rose from $0.28 in June 2022 to $0.94 in July 2023, later falling to $0.38 in July 2024 before rallying to about $3.4 in January 2025 and roughly $3.6 in July 2025.
The asset is now in what the analyst describes as a Wave 4 correction, but the broader structure still points to the $15–$20 range if the pattern continues.
Likewise, Elliott Wave analyst XForceGlobal said XRP could still reach $20 this cycle. After a 35% drop in Q4 2025, XRP recovered above $2 and gained 22.59% in the first week of 2026.
Unlike prior cycles in 2018 and 2022, XRP held levels near previous all-time highs after the November 2024 surge. This suggests market strength and supports higher targets, including $5 and $20, if the Elliott Wave pattern continues.
For XRP to approach the projected $21.5 level, its price would need to soar 1,468% from the current $1.37. Moreover, the price would give XRP a $1.31 trillion market cap.
Related: ‘Bank in a Hoodie’: Davinci Jeremie Slams XRP Amid Wave 4 Slump
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