- XRP climbed above $2, outperforming Bitcoin and Etherem during the latest market move.
- Social sentiment recovered from late-December fear.
- Retail optimism is rising faster than smart-money positioning.
XRP trades at $2.12, up by 2.6% in the past day as broader crypto markets advanced. Sentiment indicators suggest improving trader confidence following late-December pessimism.
Specifically, XRP recorded one of the strongest gains among major cryptocurrencies, rising above 11% in the past week. The move exceeded gains in Bitcoin, trading near $92,370, and Ethereum, which rose above $3,153.
The price increase followed a volatile December, when XRP declined alongside broader market weakness. Traders reacted to uncertainty around macroeconomic conditions, which weighed on sentiment across altcoins.
MVRV Data Shows Mixed Signals
On the Thinking Crypto YouTube podcast, Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan reviewed XRP’s market value to realized value, or MVRV, a metric used to assess profit and loss among holders. He said the recent rally pushed XRP’s 30-day MVRV back into slightly positive territory, at around 1.5%.
This suggests traders who bought XRP within the past month are, on average, close to breakeven. Quinlivan described the level as neutral and not a sign of excessive profit-taking pressure.
Long-term holders remain in a different position. Santiment data shows long-term MVRV near -18%, after falling as low as minus 25% on New Year’s Eve. According to Quinlivan, this indicates that many long-term investors are still holding unrealized losses. For context, XRP traded at $3.66 six months ago, and remains down 41% from that peak.
Sentiment Improves but Avoids Euphoria
While sentiment has improved since late December, Santiment data shows it remains below levels typically associated with speculative excess. Quinlivan noted that strong rallies often fail when optimism spikes too quickly, and retail traders rush to buy.
He added that sustained price advances tend to occur when expectations remain controlled, and sentiment does not surge sharply alongside price.
So far, XRP’s recovery has not triggered widespread euphoria, reducing the likelihood of an immediate reversal based on sentiment alone.
Broader Risk Appetite Returns to Crypto
Other market observers see a wider shift in positioning. SwapHunt, a crypto market analyst, said capital is moving into both large-cap assets and higher-risk tokens simultaneously.
According to the analyst, this pattern suggests expanding risk appetite as traders anticipate changes in the regulatory environment.
Retail Optimism Outpaces Smart Money
Despite improving conditions, newer sentiment indicators show a growing divergence between retail traders and institutional participants. Recent data places XRP crowd sentiment at 3.17, indicating strong retail optimism. In contrast, smart-money sentiment stands near 0.90, reflecting only mild institutional confidence.
Related: XRP Price Prediction: Buyers Reclaim $2 As ETF Inflows And Supply Tighten The Tape
Analysts are now watching whether XRP can maintain its position above $2 without triggering a rise in speculative behavior. Continued gains supported by restrained sentiment and improving long-term metrics could extend the rally. At the same time, a rapid increase in retail optimism without stronger institutional participation may limit near-term upside.
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