- Ethereum exchange balances drop to their lowest levels since 2018 amid institutional accumulation.
- BlackRock reportedly pressures the SEC to approve an ETH staking ETF within two weeks.
- Cardano approaches multi-year resistance while testing the 200-week moving average support.
Ethereum is approaching a potential supply shock as exchange reserves have fallen to their lowest levels in seven years, according to analyst Dan Gambardello. The decline in available ETH on centralized exchanges has created conditions that could drive major price movements if demand increases.
Exchange data shows ETH balances have reached lows not seen since 2018. The data shows sustained withdrawal activity by both retail and institutional investors. This pattern usually precedes major price rallies as available supply for purchase becomes constrained while demand remains steady or increases.
Gambardello noted that institutions are accumulating Ethereum despite its recent underperformance relative to Bitcoin and other altcoins. The supply reduction coincides with growing institutional interest in ETH as a treasury asset and inflation hedge.
“Ethereum is about almost no one sees it, but we do. I see it. Institutions are here for Ethereum. Ethereum has a place in these markets,” Gambardello stated in his analysis.
BlackRock ETF Developments Add Catalyst Potential
Recent reports suggest BlackRock is pressuring the SEC to approve ETH staking ETFs within the next two weeks. If approved, this development could serve as a major catalyst for institutional adoption and price appreciation.
The analyst acknowledged skepticism about claims that ETH could “teleport straight to $12,000” but suggested the $10,000-$12,000 range represents a reasonable target for this market cycle. He emphasized that ETF approval could kickstart both an Ethereum bull run and a broader altcoin rally.
The analyst’s risk model shows a score of 36. This places Ethereum in neutral territory but approaching levels that have historically preceded major breakouts. Historical analysis of similar risk scores in previous cycles suggests potential for rapid price movement once momentum builds.
Related: Crypto Market Update: Ethereum Stable While HBAR, SOL, SUI Post Gains
Technical Structure and Moving Averages
Ethereum trades above its 50-week moving average while testing resistance at a multi-year triangle formation. Gambardello noted that Ethereum has gained approximately twice as much as Bitcoin from the April lows.
The weekly chart shows Ethereum approaching the apex of a triangular consolidation pattern. This suggests a breakout decision is imminent. While direction remains uncertain, the combination of supply constraints and technical positioning creates conditions for rapid movement.
Gambardello’s analysis indicates the 20-week moving average needs to cross above the 50-week moving average to confirm a macro bull market for Ethereum. This would mark the first such crossover in many months and could signal the beginning of sustained upward momentum.
Cardano Tests Key Technical Levels
While Ethereum has built supply shock conditions, Cardano is going through its own moment with multi-year resistance levels. Gambardello mentioned that ADA is testing the 200-week moving average.
The analyst also mentioned an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern with a downward-sloping neckline on Cardano’s chart. The analyst identified that if the support level holds, ADA could hit $1.
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