- BTC dominance holds at 61.7% as Altcoin Season Index lags at just 28
- STH MVRV signals Bitcoin may push toward $118K–$128K range by June
- Total3 chart rejected at $923B, altcoins struggle to break resistance
The crypto market is heavily leaning to Bitcoin’s favor, with the Altcoin Season Index reading just 28.
This figure is far below the 75 threshold typically required to declare a true “altcoin season,” indicating Bitcoin is still firmly in command and outpacing the performance of most altcoins despite a recent broad market recovery.
Even during the recent surge that pushed Bitcoin to $105,000, altcoins had felt a short-lived bounce. Yet Bitcoin’s dominance remains at 61.7%, suggesting that capital is still consolidating around BTC.
Historically, an altcoin season requires BTC dominance to fall significantly, giving room for altcoins to outperform. That hasn’t happened yet.
Bitcoin On-Chain Metrics Suggest Further Near-Term Strength
On-chain data further supports this BTC-centric narrative. The Short-Term Holder MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) currently sits at 1.09, signaling more room to run.
According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., the next key selling pressure could emerge around 1.25 (≈$118K) and again at 1.35 (≈$128K). If current momentum holds, Adler forecasts these levels could be reached by early to late June, keeping the focus squarely on Bitcoin in the near term.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Begin Taking Profits
At the same time, Long-Term Holders (LTHs) have started to take profits. Data from May 13 shows LTH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) hit 2.27, meaning many coins are being sold at a 227% gain.
Related: Crypto Market Cap Nears $3.5 Trillion As TOTAL3 Chart Signals Altcoin Breakout Ahead
This is a classic signal of distribution–long-term investors locking in profits before potential pullbacks. The last time LTHs showed such behavior, Bitcoin faced noticeable corrections shortly after.
Total3 Chart Offers Mixed Outlook for Altcoins
The Total3 chart (crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH) reveals a mixed picture for altcoins.
After bouncing off the 0.618 Fibonacci level (~$892 billion), Total3 was rejected near the 0.786 retracement (~$923 billion). RSI is sitting at 63, which is bullish but not overheated. MACD remains in a positive crossover, hinting at continued upside.
Related: Watch XRP, ADA, HBAR, QNT Carefully as Bitcoin Enters Correction Mode
However, without a decisive break above $962 billion (previous high), the altcoin market remains vulnerable to BTC-led market dynamics.
Until then, the market remains firmly in Bitcoin Season, with altcoin dominance on hold and profit-taking behavior from veteran BTC holders shaping the next phase.
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