Analyst Predicts Trends Using Whales’ Onchain Borrowing Data

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Analyst Predicts Trends Using Whales
  • Traders can tell when whales go long by monitoring borrowing patterns on Aave/Compound.
  • Four whales have used this borrowing strategy in the last 24 hours.
  • Whales’ borrowing is similar to using margin or leverage on centralized exchanges.

Traders can tell when whales go long by monitoring the Aave/Compound stablecoin borrowing pattern, according to The Data Nerd, an onchain data analyst. According to the analyst, four whales have used this strategy in the last 24 hours.

In a Twitter thread, The Data Nerd explained that similar to using margin or leverage on centralized exchanges (CEX), whales would go long by borrowing stablecoin using Aave or CompoundFinance. They would follow this up by using the amount to buy assets on decentralized exchanges (DEX) or to deposit to CEX. They repeat the cycle and use it as a profitable system in the cryptocurrency market.

By monitoring the action of whales, The Data Nerd explained that when many whales borrow, the price of ETH will rise in the mid-term. He further explained this using a pictorial representation, showing the correlation of his analysis on multiple occasions. However, the analyst indicated an exception in March 2023, when the USDC depeg altered the market situation and defied the rule.

According to the onchain data analyst, a wallet used 10,000 ETH, approximately $18 million in Compound, to borrow 3.2 million USDC a day before the report. The whale deposited the borrowed stablecoins on the Binance exchange. He noted that the last time the same whale executed a similar transaction was in December 2022, when ETH’s price was $1,100.

The Data Nerd indicated that two other wallets suspected to belong to the same whale used Morpho to borrow $4.5 million, and $2.5 million, depositing all the borrowed funds in the Binance exchange.

From the analyst’s logic and deductions, the significant whale activities suggest an impending ETH rally, having dropped from a local high in the past week. ETH’s price pulled back after reaching a yearly high of $2,140. As of the time of writing, the flagship altcoin is trading at $1,840, according to data from TradingView.