The Bitcoin price today is trading just above $104,000, marking a critical recovery from the week’s earlier lows near $101,300. After consolidating within a descending triangle on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin price action finally broke to the upside, reclaiming key short-term EMAs and inching toward the resistance cluster near $104,900.
Despite the breakout, bullish momentum has not followed through strongly, as Bitcoin price volatility remains subdued below the Fibonacci resistance and daily highs. The current structure suggests a delicate balance between renewed optimism and overhead supply, especially as the market navigates macroeconomic uncertainty and cooling momentum signals.
Bitcoin Price 4H Chart: Breakout Confirmed, But Is It Sustainable?
On the 4-hour chart, BTC broke above a downward sloping triangle, with price retesting the $104,000 zone and briefly spiking toward $104,200. This confirms a bullish breakout, as noted by the double trendline break visible on both the 30-min and 4H setups.
Still, upside is facing friction. The 0.786 Fib zone from the weekly retracement lies just overhead near $104,900, which aligns with the upper Bollinger Band and red resistance zone on multiple intraday charts. The price remains above the 20/50/100/200 EMAs (with the 20-EMA at $103,350), signaling underlying bullish structure — but the breakout is losing follow-through.
Meanwhile, Stochastic RSI on the 4H chart has entered overbought territory (87.87), which may suggest some short-term exhaustion unless backed by strong volume.
Bitcoin Price Daily Chart: Still Bullish but Overextended Near Fib Cluster
The daily timeframe remains structurally bullish, with BTC having cleanly broken above $100,000 and establishing higher lows from the $96,000 support zone. The Bitcoin price update on May 16 shows candles consolidating below weekly highs with a clear resistance zone capping price at $104,900–$105,000.
Weekly Fibonacci levels from the December 2024 high to March 2025 low suggest the next significant resistance at 0.786 near $104,919, and further above, the 1.0 level near $109,396, which may act as a final bullish target if momentum resumes.
However, any dip below the reclaimed trendline near $101,300 would invalidate the bullish breakout. For now, buyers continue to defend that level with conviction.
Bitcoin Price Indicators: RSI Cooling Off, MACD Holding, Momentum Mixed
The 30-min RSI is hovering around 58.91, with a temporary peak near 60.17, reflecting neutral-to-bullish strength without being overbought. On the same chart, MACD remains positive but has flattened out (+287.31 vs. +274), pointing to waning momentum in the short term.
On higher timeframes, the Ichimoku cloud on the 4H chart shows BTC decisively above the Kumo, with Tenkan at $104,051 and Kijun at $103,109, offering short-term dynamic support. However, the flat Kumo top may act as resistance if upside weakens again.
Why Bitcoin Price Going Up Today?
The question of why Bitcoin price going up today can be traced to the technical reclaim of key intraday EMAs, breakout from a falling triangle, and bullish confirmation on the Ichimoku cloud.
The combination of rising EMAs and narrowing Bollinger Bands had hinted at a potential breakout — and bulls delivered. However, follow-through is now dependent on breaking the psychological barrier near $105K and sustaining volume-backed moves.
May 17 Outlook: Can BTC Price Close Above $105K?
Looking ahead, bulls must defend $103,350–$103,800 to prevent a reversion to the mean. If BTC can hold above the 4H trendline and reclaim $104,900, the path toward $106,000 and $109,000 (weekly high) opens. On the downside, a rejection could drag price back toward $101,300, or worse, $99,600, where the 100-EMA sits.
For now, Bitcoin holds a bullish bias, but with decreasing momentum, buyers must remain cautious and watch for strong reaction near Fib and trendline resistances.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecast Summary
| Key Zone/Indicator | Level | Bias |
| Resistance | $104,900–$105,000 | Strong overhead resistance (Fib + Bollinger top) |
| Immediate Support | $103,350–$103,800 | Intraday EMA and trendline confluence |
| Deeper Support | $101,300 | Previous triangle base; must hold |
| RSI (4H) | 58.91 | Neutral–bullish |
| MACD (30-min) | Flattening | Fading upside momentum |
| Stochastic RSI (4H) | 87.87 | Overbought |
| Weekly Fib Resistance | $104,919 | Major breakout barrier |
| Weekly Fib Extension | $109,396 | Potential bullish target |
In our May 16 BTC forecast, we highlighted the importance of a breakout above $103,800. With that move now confirmed, bulls eye the next resistance at $104,900–105,000. However, fading RSI and MACD momentum raise caution. A decisive close above Fib resistance will be critical for further upside.
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