Crypto at a Turning Point: Bitcoin Dominance vs. a Bullish Ethereum Setup

• The crypto market is at a turning point, with BTC Dominance and Ethereum showing opposing signals
• Bitcoin Dominance is testing its 50-week moving average, a key level for the altcoin market
• Ethereum has flashed a bullish “golden cross” signal not seen since before the 2020 bull run

The crypto market is currently at a turning point, with Ethereum eyeing a breakout and Bitcoin dominance sitting on a key support level. 

Bitcoin Dominance: The Deciding Factor for Altcoins

Bitcoin dominance is currently sitting at the 50-week moving average, a level that has historically acted as a major support zone. (see chart).

This same setup occurred in November 2024. At that time, Bitcoin dominance bounced off this moving average, putting a halt to hopes for an altcoin season and triggering a sharp increase in BTC’s market share.

Context Check: Bitcoin’s current stalemate is part of a “calm bull run.” Get our full analysis on its historically low volatility

A sustained break below the 50-week average (near 60%) could open the door for altcoins to outperform. On the other hand, a bounce from this level may once again shift momentum back in Bitcoin’s favor.

Ethereum Breakout Setup in Progress

At the same time, a powerful bullish signal has appeared on Ethereum’s chart; the 20-day and 50-day moving averages have just crossed above the 200-day moving average. 

ETH made a similar move before its 2020–2021 bull run. For the bullish trend to confirm, Ethereum needs to decisively break above the $4,100 mark.

If Ethereum fails to break above $4,100, the likely scenario is continued consolidation. Ethereum is currently testing a long-term macro trendline that extends all the way back to the last bull cycle.

However, during the 2020 cycle, Ethereum didn’t rally right away after this crossover. Instead, it consolidated, moving sideways and occasionally dipping toward support levels.

Risk Models Point to an ETH Pre-Bull Phase

Adding to the long-term bullish case, Ethereum’s risk score currently sits around 49, a level last seen in mid-2020, right before it entered a full-scale bull market. 

For Context: Signals for Ethereum have been mixed. Here’s our breakdown of the recent whale alert that sparked selloff fears.

The analyst said that Ethereum could dip toward the low $3,000s before a major move. Important support levels include the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which are currently hovering near $3,100 and slightly above. This area could become a key accumulation zone if prices pull back further.

If Ethereum does dip, the analyst expects institutional players and ETFs to increase accumulation. Recent data has shown mixed flows into crypto ETFs, but any correction in Ethereum’s price could trigger fresh inflows and long-term buying.