- A slumping US dollar and record global liquidity are creating a bullish macro setup for Bitcoin
- On-chain data shows a historic number of long-term holders are not selling their Bitcoin
- This convergence of factors has analysts setting price targets of $135,000 and higher
As the United States dollar slumps to a three-year low and long-term holders tighten their grip on the Bitcoin supply, market conditions appear primed for a new leg up. With Bitcoin holding firm above the $107,000 mark, analysts are pointing to a powerful convergence of macroeconomic weakness and strong on-chain fundamentals that could fuel a rally toward $135,000 and beyond.
CoinMarketCap data shows that Bitcoin is trading above the $107K mark, holding firms above $100K amid a convergence of macroeconomic weakness and unprecedented long-term holding behavior.
Dollar Weakness and Liquidity Surge
According to crypto analyst Lark Davis, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has just slumped to a three-year low, down 11% year-to-date. Simultaneously, global M2 money supply–essentially the total liquidity in the economy–has hit fresh all-time highs.
Historically, this environment of abundant liquidity and a weak dollar has been a key driver for Bitcoin rallies. Simply put: more money, lower fiat value, and higher appetite for alternative stores of value.
“You know what happens next,” Davis cryptically posted, hinting at Bitcoin’s track record of explosive growth under similar conditions.
Long-Term Holders Are Locking In
On-chain analyst Darkfost shared data showing a historic surge in long-term held (LTH) Bitcoin supply—coins that haven’t moved in over 6 months. These holdings have entered the LTH category in the $95,000–$107,000 range, a significant psychological and structural level.
Related: Michael Saylor Calls Bitcoin a “Steel Vessel” as Fiat and Gold Sink: Inside His $500M Shift
“This marks only the sixth time in Bitcoin’s history we’ve seen such strong commitment to holding at these price levels,” Darkfost said, noting that the designation “LTH” may be better understood as “coin age” rather than addresses.
The shift in behavior confirms that large cohorts of investors are not planning to sell, even as Bitcoin flirts with all-time highs.
Wall Street’s Risk-On Sentiment Boosts Crypto Case
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite futures hit record highs, with the S&P breaching 6,145 points, up 23% since April. A ceasefire between Israel and Iran, easing trade tensions, and the potential for Fed rate cuts as early as July have improved investor sentiment drastically.
Rising stock futures signal an increasing appetite for risk, and Bitcoin is historically quick to benefit when markets shift into risk-on mode.
As per the chart above, Bitcoin remains in a strong uptrend on the weekly timeframe as Bollinger Bands (BB) show that BTC is pressing against the upper band with expanding volatility—typically a signal of a continuation pattern rather than reversal.
Related: Arthur Hayes on Stablecoins, Geopolitics, and Bitcoin’s Next Peak
The On-Balance Volume (OBV) remains elevated at 16.28M, reflecting sustained buying pressure even at higher prices—a classic bullish signal.
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