CLARITY Act Odds Rise Above 60% on Polymarket

• CLARITY Act passage odds moved above 60% on Polymarket for the first time in a month, Fundstrat said.
• The Polymarket data showed a 61% chance, down 5% on the day, with $601,904 in volume.
• Senator Thom Tillis recently said he was ready to push the CLARITY Act toward a Senate markup.

CLARITY Act odds on Polymarket moved above 60% for the first time in a month, according to Fundstrat’s post on X. The post called the shift a positive development for crypto, while tagging ETH and BMNR.

The Polymarket screen showed a 61% chance for the market titled “Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?” with $601,904 in volume. However, the display also showed the odds down 5% on the day after a sharp rebound from the mid-40% range.

Polymarket Odds Rebound

Meanwhile, the prediction market chart showed a volatile month for CLARITY Act expectations. Odds traded mostly between the mid-50% and mid-60% area in early April, then dropped toward the mid-40% range before rebounding sharply above 60%.

Fundstrat highlighted the move as the first break above 60% in a month. Notably, the post framed the change as a crypto-positive signal since the bill aims to provide clearer rules for digital asset markets.

The odds do not represent a formal Senate vote. Nevertheless, Polymarket markets often reflect how traders price the likelihood of political outcomes based on public reports, negotiations, and expected legislative timing.

The latest move came as separate reports pointed to progress on stablecoin-related disputes. Those reports said a compromise on revenue-sharing helped improve market confidence around the bill’s path in 2026.

Stablecoin Talks Drive Focus

Even so, the CLARITY Act has faced delays as lawmakers worked through issues tied to stablecoin yield, software developers, and agency oversight. Stablecoin language has remained one of the bill’s most-watched sections as it affects issuers, banks, and crypto platforms.

Recent reporting said stablecoin revenue-sharing talks helped remove a major political obstacle. Under the reported compromise, part of stablecoin reserve revenue would support state regulators, while another portion would support a federal innovation fund.

Meanwhile, industry participants continue to watch whether the bill can set clearer boundaries between securities and commodities oversight. The bill’s wider framework also focuses on exchange registration, token classification, consumer disclosures, and DeFi compliance paths.

However, market odds can shift quickly if committee timing changes or new objections emerge. That makes the next markup step important for traders watching whether prediction-market confidence turns into legislative action.

Tillis Markup Signal Adds Support

Coin Edition previously reported that Eleanor Terrett said Senator Thom Tillis was ready to push the CLARITY Act toward a markup after lawmakers return from recess. Tillis said negotiators had made progress and that the bill should move before the committee.

According to Terrett, Tillis said, “I’m going to ask the chair to move forward with scheduling a markup when we get back… I think we’ve made a lot of progress… and it’s time to get it before the committee to move it forward.”

Tillis also said most bank concerns about stablecoin yield had been heard and addressed. Additionally, he said others could still “come and work in good faith,” leaving space for more input before the committee stage.

The latest Polymarket move now reflects that improving procedural backdrop. Even so, the bill still needs formal committee action, updated text on stablecoin issues, and enough support to advance through the Senate process.

Related: Senator Tillis Backs CLARITY Act Markup After Stablecoin Talks