- Trump’s $2,000 plan sends stimulus hopes surging, then crashing.
- Polymarket odds drop to 5%, triggering crypto weakness.
- Stimulus historically boosts crypto as new liquidity enters.
President Donald Trump has brought back a big idea: sending stimulus checks to Americans. He calls it the “tariff dividend,” and it would give at least $2,000 to most adults in the country. About 85% of Americans would qualify. Trump says this money would come from the tariffs his administration is collecting.
This feels very similar to what happened in 2020 and 2021, when the government sent relief checks during COVID. At that time, many people used that extra money to buy stocks and crypto, and both markets exploded higher.
Now Trump is saying he wants to do it again. He claims the U.S. has collected “trillions” from tariffs and that Americans should get a share of it. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that Congress would still need to approve the plan. When asked if a $2,000 check would increase inflation, he said, “Maybe we can convince Americans to save it.”
Why Crypto Reacts Faster to Government Handouts
One analyst explained that when the government sends out stimulus checks, a lot of that money quickly flows into risk assets, and crypto reacts the strongest. In 2020, as soon as people received their first $1,200 checks, Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana all began huge rallies because many treated the money like “extra cash”. That fresh liquidity pushed markets higher for months, and small stimulus amounts turned into massive gains.
Polymarket Odds Collapse and Crypto Follows
Polymarket shows the probability of $2,000 tariff checks happening this year plunging to just 5%. The collapse accelerated after Trump clarified that his target date is 2026, not 2025.
The market reaction was swift. Crypto, which thrives on liquidity expectations, slid sharply. The total crypto market cap has fallen to roughly $3.15 trillion amid broader risk-off sentiment.
Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Price Slides Toward $88K Even As CIO Says Bottom Is Already In
Double Bottom Formation
Some analysts say the charts still look healthy despite the recent drop. Crypto prices have fallen to a strong support level. On the H2, H4, and Daily charts, momentum is now oversold, meaning sellers are losing strength. This drop has also created what looks like a double-bottom pattern, which is a bullish reversal signal.
Related: Basel Committee to Overhaul Crypto Bank Rules After US, UK Rejection
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