Bitcoin’s 20% weekly rally has pushed the cryptocurrency above $77,000, but traders on Kalshi expect some of those gains to fade by year-end.
Kalshi contracts put Bitcoin at about $75,000 in December, suggesting traders see limited upside after the recent surge. Before Wednesday’s rally, contracts priced Bitcoin at about $66,000 for year-end, highlighting how quickly expectations have shifted.
Kalshi Traders Temper Bitcoin Outlook
Kalshi contracts track where Bitcoin will finish within $5,000 price bands, with CF Benchmarks data used for final settlement.
Related: How Bitcoin’s Rally Above $77K Impacts Strategy’s MSTR Stock
The rally accelerated after President Donald Trump urged Congress to advance the CLARITY Act. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has also directed agency staff to prepare rules for crypto markets if lawmakers fail to reach an agreement.
Institutional Adoption Tells Another Story
STS Digital CEO Maxime Seiler said crypto prices and institutional adoption are moving in different directions. “We’re in crypto winter price-wise where we’re in institutional summer,” Seiler said at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2026.
Institutions are increasingly adopting blockchain technology without necessarily buying the tokens linked to those networks. “As institutions come in and adopt the technology, money doesn’t flow necessarily into the tokens today,” Seiler said.
That disconnect may help explain why Bitcoin’s sharp rally has yet to produce a stronger year-end outlook.
Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction Breaks Fair Value Gap Ahead Of Trump’s Friday Speech
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