Oil Rises as Bitcoin Falls Despite Ceasefire Claims

Oil Prices Rise Despite Ceasefire Claims as Bitcoin Moves in the Opposite Direction

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Oil Rises as Bitcoin Falls Despite Ceasefire Claims
  • Trump insisted the ceasefire still holds despite reports of attacks involving U.S. Navy destroyers.
  • Oil climbed above $100 after fresh U.S.-Iran clashes near the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Bitcoin rallied during ceasefire optimism but later fell back as tensions reignited across markets.

Oil prices climbed again on Friday, even after U.S. President Donald Trump insisted that a ceasefire between the United States and Iran was still holding. 

Fresh military clashes in the Strait of Hormuz renewed fears that the conflict could further disrupt global energy supplies. This has pushed Brent crude back above the $100 per barrel.

U.S. and Iranian Forces Exchanged Fire

The latest flare-up came after U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged fire near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said three U.S. Navy destroyers were attacked while moving through the strait.

However, he claimed the vessels suffered no damage and that American forces responded heavily against Iranian attackers.

“They trifled with us today. We blew them away,” Trump told reporters, while later downplaying the confrontation and insisting the ceasefire remained active.

Iran, however, accused the United States of violating the ceasefire agreement. Iranian military officials claimed U.S. forces attacked an Iranian oil tanker and struck civilian areas near Qeshm Island and coastal regions around the Strait of Hormuz. 

Tehran said it responded by targeting U.S. military vessels east of the strait and near the port of Chabahar. Meanwhile, markets reacted immediately to the renewed tensions.

Oil Jumps Above $100 Again

Brent crude briefly surged above $101 per barrel on Friday after the exchange of fire, while U.S. benchmark WTI crude traded around $94–$95. 

On May 4, Iran attacked the UAE’s Fujairah oil terminal using drones and missiles, sending Brent crude nearly 6% higher to around $114.44 per barrel. Prices later cooled after U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed the ceasefire was holding and that shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz were reopening.

By midweek, oil prices had fallen roughly 7% from their highs as traders hoped diplomacy would prevent a prolonged regional war. However, the renewed fighting on May 8 revived fears that supplies moving through Hormuz could again face disruption.

Bitcoin Climbs While Oil Falls — Then Reverses

While oil prices reacted directly to war headlines, Bitcoin largely moved in the opposite direction this week.

Bitcoin started the week near $76,960 before rallying to almost $83,000 between May 5 and May 6, marking its highest level since January 2026. 

However, after failing to break above its 200-day moving average near $83,000, sellers pushed BTC back toward $79,340 by May 8.

The timing of the moves stood out to traders. Oil prices initially spiked because of war fears, then dropped as ceasefire optimism returned. Bitcoin, meanwhile, rallied during the period when oil cooled, and market sentiment improved.

This inverse relationship reflects how the two assets react to different economic forces.

Oil is heavily tied to geopolitical risk and physical supply disruptions. Bitcoin, on the other hand, behaves more like a risk asset in the short term. When investors believe tensions may ease, confidence returns to markets, and money tends to flow back into assets like crypto and stocks.

Why BTC Often Moves Opposite to Oil

Several factors supported Bitcoin’s rally earlier this week, including continued institutional ETF inflows and whale accumulation.

At the same time, falling oil prices during the ceasefire optimism phase helped reduce inflation fears temporarily. Lower energy prices can improve expectations that central banks may avoid tighter monetary policy, which often benefits crypto assets.

Notably, Bitcoin and oil do not maintain a strong long-term correlation. Short-term moves can occasionally mirror each other during major geopolitical events, but the two assets usually follow separate narratives.

Trump Pushes for Negotiated Deal

Despite the latest exchange of fire, Trump continued to push for diplomacy, saying negotiations with Tehran were ongoing.

The United States has reportedly proposed a plan to formally end the conflict. Trump claimed Iran had effectively accepted that it could never obtain nuclear weapons. However, Tehran has not yet officially approved the proposal.

“It might not happen, but it could happen any day,” Trump said. “I believe they want to deal more than I do.”

Meanwhile, the conflict is creating growing domestic pressure in the United States. Average gasoline prices have surged more than 40% since late February, climbing by roughly $1.20 per gallon to above $4 nationwide as oil supply concerns intensify.

For now, both oil and crypto traders remain highly sensitive to every new headline coming out of the Middle East, with volatility expected to continue across global markets.

Related: Will the US Continue Its Offensive Against Iran?

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