- Bitcoin has climbed past $120,000, triggering renewed on-chain activity and investor interest.
- However, current supply movement remains subdued compared to previous distribution phases.
- Analysts point to a potential buffer for further upside, with long-term holders showing little inclination to sell at current levels.
As Bitcoin hovers around $117,000 after recently hitting a new all-time high, a telling shift is appearing in on-chain activity. According to new data highlighted by Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., the current uptick remains far below the levels seen during past market tops, suggesting the macro cycle may still be in its early innings.
In his commentary on this trend, Adler Jr. says the market may still be in the early innings of its macro cycle.
Past Peaks Show Clear Supply Awakening Before Major Moves
Adler noted that in previous bull cycles, significant increases in the percentage of BTC supply active within 180 days preceded key market tops.
For instance, when Bitcoin hit $70,000 in spring 2024, the active supply surged to 20%. A second wave occurred in December 2024, as Bitcoin broke the psychological $100,000 barrier, driving the metric to 18%.
These spikes indicate that long-dormant coins were moving out of storage and entering circulation, typically marking the onset of large-scale profit-taking.
Related: Bitcoin Falls Below $117K After “Satoshi-Era” Whale Moves $9.5 Billion
Early Signals but No Red Flags
As of June 2025, Bitcoin is once again hovering around the $100K zone, but this time, supply activity has increased only modestly. The 30-day change in active supply recently flipped from -17% to +2.4%, suggesting a cautious return of coins to the market.
This muted rise stands in contrast to previous surges, leading macro Bitcoin researcher Adler to suggest that the market remains in an early phase. According to him, this lag in supply activation provides a “buffer” for further upside without triggering immediate selling pressure.
BTC’s Likely Path to the Real Market Top
If Bitcoin stabilizes above $100K and pushes higher, especially beyond $120,000, Adler predicts that the 30-day active supply will first climb to the 8–10% range. This gradual increase would then likely be followed by another test of the 18–20% threshold, which has historically been associated with late-cycle distribution.
Related: Bitcoin Whales Move $1B in BTC in Hours After Dormant Investor Wakes Up to 3,176,464% ROI
Until then, the data suggests a significant portion of holders remain unwilling to sell. In other words, the current rally may still have room to grow before long-term holders begin widespread profit-taking.
Among the popular price predictions for Bitcoin is a top around $250,000. Financial author Robert Kiyosaki even projects a price of $500,000, while others like Samson Mow are calling for $1 million.
At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $118,535, up 0.09% over the past day and 16% over the last four weeks.
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