- Polymarket US launched five-minute up-or-down markets for BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP.
- Chainlink’s 60-second TWAP helps determine market outcomes and reduce the impact of brief price spikes.
- The CFTC is investigating Polymarket’s compliance with US access restrictions on its international platform.
Polymarket US has launched new five-minute betting markets for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL) and XRP. Users can predict whether the price of each cryptocurrency will go up or down within five minutes.
Announced on October 27, 2026, the new markets give users a faster way to speculate on crypto price movements. They build on the 15-minute, hourly, and daily markets introduced on October 15.
However, the launch comes as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reviews whether Polymarket is complying with an earlier agreement that prevents US users from accessing its international platform.
How Polymarket’s 5-Minute Markets Work
Each market asks users to predict whether a cryptocurrency’s price will be higher or lower at the end of a five-minute period. Users buy shares based on their predictions. If they are correct, they receive a payout. If they are wrong, they lose the money they put into the shares.
The markets cover BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP, allowing users to speculate on price movements without directly buying or selling the cryptocurrencies.
Unlike regular crypto trading, these markets have only two possible outcomes: up or down. The cryptocurrency’s price at the start and end of the five-minute period determines the result.
Because the trading window is so short, even a small price change can determine whether a user wins or loses. There is also little time for prices to recover if they initially move against a user’s prediction.
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Chainlink TWAP Determines Market Results
Polymarket uses price data from Chainlink to decide the winners of its crypto markets. It specifically uses a 60-second time-weighted average price (TWAP), which averages prices over one minute instead of relying on a single price at one moment.
The system has been in use since August 14, 2026. It is designed to reduce the impact of sudden price spikes or attempts to manipulate the result. However, it cannot prevent every form of manipulation or guarantee that the result matches the price on every exchange.
This method matters most for five-minute markets, where even a brief price change near the end can affect the outcome.
Polymarket first introduced five-minute Bitcoin markets in February 2026 before expanding the format to Ethereum, Solana and XRP. The October 27 launch brings all four cryptocurrencies to its US platform.
CFTC Investigates Polymarket’s International Platform
The launch comes as the US CFTC investigates whether Polymarket has followed a 2022 agreement requiring it to stop allowing US users to access its international platform.
The investigation focuses on how the company identifies users’ locations, its advertising in the US, and the registration process and safeguards on its US platform. The inquiry raises questions about how effectively Polymarket prevents US customers from accessing its international service.
The CFTC and the US Department of Justice closed earlier investigations into Polymarket in 2025 without filing charges, Reuters reported. CEO Shayne Coplan announced the closures in July that year.
Polymarket later acquired a derivatives exchange licensed by the CFTC, helping establish its US operation.
The company now operates two platforms with different regulatory arrangements. Polymarket US operates under CFTC oversight, while Polymarket.com serves international users under a separate structure.
Reuters reported that both Polymarket and the CFTC declined to comment on the latest investigation. The investigation does not mean Polymarket has broken the law. It could end without any enforcement action.
VPN Use Raises Concerns About Location Restrictions
The investigation has raised questions about whether users can bypass Polymarket’s location restrictions by using virtual private networks (VPNs) or other tools to hide their real locations.
Polymarket says it bans users from using VPNs or similar tools to get around these restrictions. The company also says it has systems to detect rule violations and block users who are not allowed to access its international platform.
The issue gained attention in April 2026, when US authorities charged Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke with alleged insider trading on Polymarket’s international platform. According to the indictment, he used a VPN and an “exit mode” to make it appear that he was outside the US. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty, and Polymarket said it reported the case to authorities.
Months later, in August, Polymarket’s global head of investigations and intelligence, Shana Bautista, told Reuters that US users bypassing the restrictions was not a “really prevalent issue.”
The case and Bautista’s comments have drawn attention to how effectively prediction-market platforms enforce location restrictions and comply with US regulations as the industry grows.
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Related: Polymarket Faces Fresh CFTC Scrutiny Over Offshore Platform Access
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