USDT Inflows and Bitcoin Price: Correlation or Causation? CryptoQuant Analysis

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USDT Inflows and Bitcoin Price: Correlation or Causation? CryptoQuant Analysis
  • USDT inflow spikes in January, April, and June correlate with Bitcoin price movements.
  • Bitcoin rose 33% in January and $10,000 in April.
  • CryptoQuant’s report highlights the influence of stablecoin flows on Bitcoin.

USDT transaction inflows in 2024 show a correlation with Bitcoin price movements, according to a report from CryptoQuant. USDT’s transaction chart displays notable spikes in inflow in early January, late April, and late June, signaling significant exchange activity.

Bitcoin also demonstrated a similar price movement during these periods, maintaining a strong upward trend until mid-April. However, this rally was immediately followed by a consolidation phase and a slight decline.

In early January, USDT experienced increased transaction inflows, reaching a daily average of approximately 1,000 on-chain activities. Following this spike, Bitcoin’s price rose from $30,000 to $40,000 by mid-January, a 33% increase.

On April 1, USDT recorded another spike in transaction inflow, surpassing 500 daily on-chain activities. As expected, Bitcoin’s price followed suit, climbing from around $55,000 before the spike to around $65,000 in mid-April. This trend suggests that the USDT inflow may have supported BTC’s upward trend, contributing to a $10,000 price increase before its decline towards the end of April.

During USDT’s transaction spike on June 24, Bitcoin’s price fell sharply, closing at $60,363 before consolidating around the $62,000 mark by the end of June. During this period, Bitcoin’s market sentiment was predominantly bearish, with a Fear score below 50, suggesting that increased selling pressure may have driven BTC’s price slip.

According to CryptoQuant author Woo Minkyu, this trend, “suggests that significant USDT transaction movements on exchanges often coincide with notable price actions in Bitcoin, highlighting the potential influence of stablecoin flows on the broader cryptocurrency market.”

These observations indicate that spikes in USDT inflows are strongly correlated with significant price movements in Bitcoin. As observed, the inflows often precede major price changes, suggesting potential shifts in market sentiment and trading activity. Moreover, the chart demonstrates the impact of significant USDT inflows on Bitcoin’s buying or selling pressure.

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