- A new analyst model suggests XRP’s price could mirror its explosive 2017 or 2021 bull cycles
- The forecast is supported by strong fundamentals, including rising institutional demand and ETF hype
- The model’s R-squared value shows an 85% statistical correlation to XRP’s past bull runs
An analyst says the math checks out for XRP to be repeating its past bull cycles, based on a new forecast model that shows a statistically significant correlation. Analyst Egrag Crypto’s latest prediction suggests the XRP price continues to mirror its 2017 and 2021 bull runs, laying out a historical blueprint for the current cycle.
How Does the Analyst’s XRP Forecast Model Work?
Egrag Crypto’s forecast uses a technical model on the monthly time frame to map XRP’s potential path. The core of the analysis is a 2-standard deviation model which shows a high probability that XRP’s price is repeating a similar fractal pattern to the prior two cycles. A key data point is the model’s R-squared value of 0.84754.
“Current R-squared: 0.84754, indicating a highly fitting model. This means approximately 84.75% of the variance…can be explained by the independent variable,” Egrag noted.
What Do the Historical Patterns Suggest?
The model shows two different outcomes depending on which historical cycle repeats. If the 2021 fractal pattern plays out, which resulted in a 45% miss of the model’s upper edge, the analyst expects a price target of $18. However, if XRP repeats its explosive 2017 cycle, which resulted in a 570% overshoot, a target of $200 is possible.
Do Ripple’s Fundamentals Support the Bullish Model?
Yes, robust fundamentals at Ripple Labs provide a strong backstop for the bullish technical case. Since the close of the Ripple vs. SEC case, institutional demand for XRP has grown steadily.
Several fund managers have now filed for spot XRP ETFs, and as XRP tops the crypto market ahead of October SEC ETF decisions anticipation is building.
Earlier this week, the CME Group announced that Wall Street is piling into XRP, with futures hitting a record $1 Billion. This combination of strong fundamentals provides a powerful foundation for the bullish technical model detailed above.
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