90% Chance of Bitcoin ETF Approval by January 10, Analyst Predicts

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  • Bloomberg analyst forecasts a 90% probability of Bitcoin ETF approval by Jan 10.
  • James Seyffart claimed that the window for all 12 trusts closes on Nov 17, but the SEC can decide on an initial 9.
  • Seyffart also noted delay orders for BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, and Valkyrie issued simultaneously.

Earlier today, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart claimed that there is a 90% probability of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals by January 10. However, the market can soon enter a period during which a surge of approval orders for all existing applicants might potentially materialize if the approval process accelerates.

According to a chart Seyffart tweeted, “window for all 12” including Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, iShares Bitcoin Trust, Bitwise Bitcoin ETP Trust, VanEck Bitcoin Trust, Wisdomtree Bitcoin Trust, Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF, Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust, Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund, Global X Bitcoin Trust, Hashdex Bitcoin ETF, and Franklin Bitcoin ETF closes on November 17. However, it’s theoretically possible for the SEC to render decisions on the initial 9 entries on this list at any time between now and January 10, 2024.

Seyffart also noted that the SEC issued delay orders for BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, and Valkyrie simultaneously. As per the analyst, if the SEC intends to permit all 12 filers to launch, “this is the first available window since Grayscale’s court victory was affirmed.”

In another tweet, Seyffart highlighted that even if the SEC approves a rule change that permits an ETF to trade, it is distinct from approving a fund’s registration statement. Both filings must receive approval before any of the pending Bitcoin ETFs can commence trading.

Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin briefly touched $36,000 before settling slightly lower in Asian trading hours. Bitcoin has seen a 30% increase in the last month and a 93% rise over the past year.

Despite Bitcoin’s gains, an ETF’s pricing impact is still not factored in, according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Hougan believes that ETFs will have a crucial role in making crypto investments more accessible to a wider spectrum of investors, especially financial advisors who oversee a significant portion of wealth in the United States.

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